Budget 2024: Backbenchers and bus fares – the political traps to dodge?
For any Chancellor, their first Budget is always going to be a major event.
But for Rachel Reeves, taking to the despatch box today as Britain’s first female top finance minister, she will – one way or another – be making history.
The details laid out in Labour’s first Budget after 14 years in opposition will play a large role in setting the terms and drawing up Westminster’s agenda for the rest of the Parliament.
How successfully No11 walk the tightrope of tax and spend, and whether the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) reckons their measures will get growth going, could be a defining moment for the new(ish) administration.
And despite a landslide victory, Labour have quickly seen their poll ratings tumble in power.
Get this wrong, and navigating the stormy waters of SW1 could begin to prove more difficult.
Backbench balancing
Labour has already faced down opposition from its own backbenches – the throng of MPs who do not hold a paid government job, and can therefore be more easily ‘kept in line’.
Whispers turned to fury over the decision to means test pensioners’ winter fuel payments, with the move fast becoming a full blown row.
Labour has now confirmed it will no longer fund the £2 bus fare, as Reeves is set to slash transport funding in her 12.30 speech, instead capping costs at £3 until the end of 2025.
But unhappiness – over issues such as winter fuel, and the decision not to lift the two-child benefit cap, which left-winger Zarah Sultana has again called for – could be at risk of bubbling over in light of moves seen as making life harder for poor constituents.
With some 402 Labour MPs making up the government’s 156-strong majority, and all eager to keep their seats, Keir Starmer could find himself with future rebellions on his hands.
Tory Budget criticism
Following a succession of Conservative Budgets, Labour has been used to being the ones getting to criticise from the sidelines.
This time, however, the Tories – wounded from the summer’s election result – will be preparing to hammer their opponents on every penny and decimal point.
Former Chancellor Jeremy Hunt is already irate over the OBR’s decision to release its review into whether the Tory government withheld information from the fiscal watchdog on Budget day, calling it “political interference”.
And with defence set to get an almost £3bn boost, per the Telegraph, it’s worth noting this represents a slight decline as a percentage of GDP, thanks to higher growth forecasts – despite Labour pledging to “set out the path to spending 2.5 per cent of GDP on defence” in their manifesto.
Labour should expect incoming wherever a promise is – or it can be argued – fudged, or broken.