Brexit: What happens if Theresa May loses the vote on her deal?
Theresa May’s Brexit plan looks set to be defeated by a huge margin in parliament on Tuesday.
Despite her warnings that voting down the deal could place Brexit itself in jeopardy, scores of anti-EU Tories seem prepared to defeat the government when they march through the voting lobbies.
While defeat seems a certainty, what comes next is by no means as clear.
Here are the possible outcomes:
Could there be 'no deal'?
If the deal is voted down, the UK could leave the EU without a deal. This would be the outcome if parliament is unable to come to a consensus on what happens next. The EU has repeatedly claimed renegotiations will not be reopened on the withdrawal agreement, and if that is the case, and this really is the only deal in town for Theresa May, the UK will be leaving without a withdrawal agreement on March 29.
Could Brexit be delayed?
Brexit could be delayed by two methods. The first is the UK could withdraw Article 50. The government does not need the consent of other EU states to do this, and in theory it could withdraw Article 50 and then immediately resubmit it in order to get two more years negotiating time. The second method is to seek an extension to the Article 50 process. This would require the agreement of the EU, but would be more politically sellable to Brits than revoking Article 50 entirely.
Could Parliament take over negotiations?
The government has to return to Parliament by close of play on Monday January 21 setting out what its plan B is if the deal is voted down.
A group of Conservative MPs, led by former minister Nick Boles, plan to lay an amendment to the motion which would give the government another three more weeks to get a deal through parliament.
If that fails the Liaison Committee – a group of MPs made up of the chairs of parliament’s select committees – would be tasked with coming up with a new negotiating stance.
If the committee – which contains committed Remainers such as Sarah Wollaston and ardent-Brexiters like Sir Bernard Jenkin – is able to agree a new Brexit goal, that will be put back to parliament for MPs to approve and the government would be tasked with implementing it.
Article 50 would need to be revoked in this scenario.
Could there be another referendum?
Former Attorney General Dominic Grieve is working with Lib Dem leader Sir Vince Cable to deliver a second referendum. Given another national vote has very little support among MPs, it’s hard to see how this would make into law. The Grieve/Cable plan would see the referendum options as stay in the EU or leave on the terms of May’s deal – meaning those in favour of ‘no deal’ Brexit would definitely not support it.
Could there be a general election?
Jeremy Corbyn is pushing for a general election as a way of sorting out the Brexit stalemate. He is planning to table of vote of no confidence if May loses the vote on her deal, but has not said exactly when. May only needs to lose the vote by one in parliament for the ball to start rolling on another election. Ironically, the DUP – which props up May’s government – has indicated it is more likely to support a vote of no confidence if May’s deal passes, suggesting that even if the PM fails to push through her flagship policy a general election is not imminent.
Alternatively, May could seek to trigger a general election, but that would need the support of two-thirds of MPs. Many Tories would be reluctant to back such a move as they would see it as a risk of putting Corbyn in Downing Street.
Any other options?
If the PM does lose a vote of no confidence, there is a 14 day grace period before another vote is held triggering an election. In this time, the opportunity for another government to be formed is allowed. Could a government of national unity emerge, comprising MPs from all parties? It may be that some Tories and Labour band together in order to deliver a version of Brexit they support. If so, that would tear up the political establishment in a manner not seen since the 1931, when Labour PM Ramsey MacDonald joined forces with the Tories to form a National Government.