Brexit in 2019: The only certainty is uncertainty
Predicting what will happen in the world of politics is a notoriously difficult task at the best of times, but in the current all-bets-are-off climate, surely only a fool would give it a go. City A.M.’s Owen Bennett is that fool, and here are his tips for what to look out for.
Brexit
May's Brexit deal will be debated by parliament from 9 January (Source: Getty)
MPs return to parliament on Monday with one thing on their mind: Brexit.
The debate on Theresa May’s deal will resume next week, with the highly-anticipated vote due to take place the week beginning 14 January.
May will be hoping the Christmas break allowed many of the 100 or so Conservatives expected to vote against her deal last time to take a step back and think of the implications of their actions.
She has repeatedly claimed that Brussels is not open to new negotiations, and if the agreement is voted down the UK could leave the EU without a deal on 29 March.
Downing Street will be hoping that fear of no deal will also convince some Labour MPs to break with their leadership and support her in the voting lobbies – or at the very least abstain.
Yet there seems little indication that any of May’s opponents have had a change of heart, and meetings with the anti-deal DUP this week don’t appear to have yielded a breakthrough.
If the deal is voted down, the government has 21 days to make a statement to parliament about what it plans to do next. It would then bring a motion before MPs setting out its next move.
While MPs would be able to amend this – for example, saying a new referendum must be called – it would have no legal force. However, if an overwhelming number of MPs did back a specific course of action, it would be hard for May to ignore this.
It is difficult to see how May’s deal gets through parliament in its current form, which means the likelihood of no deal is very much on the cards.
May might decide that with the Commons in a state of deadlock, with no Brexit plan commanding a majority of support, the only way forward is to shake everything up with a General Election.
Yet even that course of action is fraught with difficulties, as it would require MPs to back a new election. While the opposition parties would relish a new vote, many Tories would not want to risk losing office and the DUP would not want to lose its powerful position propping up the government.
It seems that it really is deal or no deal, and no deal is the most likely.
Leadership election
Boris Johnson and David Davis are two ex-cabinet ministers who would love to lead the UK (Source: Getty)
Regardless of the Brexit outcome, May has already promised not to lead the Conservatives into the 2022 General Election.
Those hoping to succeed her in the top job will no doubt step up their manoeuvres in 2019 as they position themselves for the inevitable election.
However, thanks to the failed no confidence vote in December giving her a 12-month amnesty, the only way there could be a contest this year is if May calls one herself.
The PM is determined to be remembered for more than the botched 2017 election and Brexit negotiations, so she may decline multiple invitations to shuffle off centre stage.
If a leadership election does take place, timing is everything. A contest in the first few months of the year would likely be against a backdrop of Brexit uncertainty and would favour an established figure such as David Davis, Boris Johnson or Michael Gove.
An election later in 2019 would presumably be because the UK has withdrawn from the EU, and the Tories want to move the conversation on. If that is the case, look to Sajid Javid, Penny Mordaunt and Matt Hancock.
Local elections
Local elections will prove to be a fresh test of public attitudes towards Brexit (Source: Getty)
The British public will be guaranteed at least one opportunity to cast a vote this year thanks to the local elections scheduled for 2 May.
Seats in 261 local authority areas in England and all 11 councils in Northern Ireland are up for grabs, and there will also be six direct mayoral elections.
Taking place just five weeks after the UK leaves the EU (usual caveats apply), it will be the first major test at the ballot box of public attitudes towards Brexit.
Of course, all the parties will insist the vote is about local issues, unless of course they do better than expected, then each will claim it is validation for their national policies.
One council worth keeping an eye on is Thanet in Kent, which was won by Ukip in 2015, but is now under no overall control.
Mansfield in Nottinghamshire will be a test of whether Labour’s vote goes up or down in a Leave-backing area, with the party currently on the same number of seats as local residents group.
The Conservatives picked up control of 32 councils last time these seats were up for grabs, and will be looking to hang on to Solihull in the west Midlands.
There are no elections in London.
Spending review
Chancellor Philip Hammond must show that austerity really is over (Source: Getty)
MPs will be forced to drag their attention away from Brexit for at least a few moment this year when the chancellor announces the government’s spending review.
Each department will be lobbying hard for extra cash, as Philip Hammond looks to make good on May’s pledge that austerity is over.
It has already been revealed that real term spending across government departments will rise by 1.2 per cent – but that is actually just what the extra £20bn for the NHS by 2023 will achieve.
If other departments want a real-terms rise, ministers will have to hope a Brexit deal is agreed to allow Hammond to free up extra cash – which is actually additional borrowing in any case.
Tory MPs have been lobbying chief secretary to the Treasury Liz Truss in recent weeks to say where they want to see cash being pumped, with schools and policing the most common areas flagged up.
European Parliament
Jean-Claude Juncker is set to stand down as European Commission president this year (Source: Getty)
The European Parliament elections take place in May, and if all goes to May’s plan, the UK will not be contesting them.
There is no indication that anti-EU populists are going to do anything but pick up seats across the continent this time round, and one party to keep an eye on is the Lega in Italy. The eurosceptic party currently has just six of Italy’s 73 MEPs, but with its leader, Matteo Salvini, now deputy prime minister, the Lega could well pick up many more seats.
While it does not favour Italy leaving the EU, the party does support drastic reform of Brussels. One of those is the direct election of the president of the European Commission, a role currently held by Jean-Claude Juncker. His term comes to an end this year, and he has said he will not seek re-election.
Those touted as successors include German MEP Manfred Weber, who has the backing of the largest bloc in the European Parliament, and Commission first vice president Frans Timmermans, the former Dutch foreign minister.