Boeing: Boom time for aviation is only just beginning
Boeing has forecast that the global aircraft fleet will double by 2042 to 48,600, with growth driven by low-cost carriers and $8trn (£6.24trn) worth of new commercial jets added to the market.
In its annual 20-year forecast, the US planemaker said that it anticipates demand for 42,595 new commercial aircraft over the period, a rise from its previous projection of 41,170 in 2022.
Boeing said the increase will be driven by demand for single-aisle fleets from low-cost carriers, who will account for 75 per cent of all new deliveries and operate 40 per cent of the narrowbody jet fleet by 2042.
By contrast, wide-body aircrafts are expected to make up 20 per cent of deliveries.
It is a forecast that comes three years after the majority of the global airline fleet was grounded during the pandemic and amid a major post-covid resurgence in international travel, with Boeing predicting a return to 2019 levels of traffic by next year.
The Paris Air Show next week is expected to see a string of major aircraft orders from airlines including Saudi’s new start-up carrier Riyadh Air.
“The aviation industry has demonstrated resilience and adaptability after unprecedented disruption, with airlines responding to challenges, simplifying their fleets, improving efficiency and capitalizing on resurgent demand,” said Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of commercial sales and marketing.
“Looking to the future of air travel, our 2023 CMO reflects further evolution of passenger traffic tied to global growth of the middle class, investments in sustainability, continued growth for low-cost carriers, and air cargo demand to serve evolving supply chains and express cargo delivery.”
Boeing’s projection also takes into account the growing pressure on airlines and manufacturers to hit sustainability goals.
The group said it is expecting airlines to replace half of the global fleet with new, more fuel-efficient models as the shift to net-zero ramps up and carriers seek ways of bolstering productivity while still hitting climate targets.
Regionally, Asia-Pacific markets are expected to take the lion’s share of global demand, accounting for 40 per cent – half of which will come from China. South East Asia will be the fastest growing market, expanding more than 7 per cent annually.
North America and Europe will make up 20 per cent of the total.
Boeing’s rival Airbus last week upped its 20-year forecast for deliveries, citing a 3.6 per cent uptick in traffic over the period and rising demand for fuel-efficient aircrafts.