Dispatch from Birmingham: Truss’ MPs go into hiding as the tide turns once again
As Conservative politicians, members, policy wonks and journalists decamped to Birmingham, there was a rumour one unnamed Tory MP had arrived early to take pictures around the city, which they could then post on social media while spending Tory conference from the comfort of their hotel room.
Elsewhere, one journalist complained of being unable to find any actual members of the Conservative party to interview to test the waters of Liz Truss’ u-turn on abolishing the 45p tax rate. And in the main hotel, there was a sort of running joke of playing “spot the Tory MP”, as so many were either avoiding the big parties or had ditched the conference all together.
These might be some of those tales that get tossed around as a sort of litmus test for the “vibe” of the room, without having much truth to them. But they illustrate a point: many were afraid to show their face while the party was tested once again.
It was a 180 degree shift from the jubilation of Manchester last year, where Boris Johnson was a magnet for hoards of MPs and members, all desperate to get a selfie with him.
This year, Jacob Rees-Mogg and Michael Gove were the star attractions, as journalists chased them around fringe events which were quickly derailed as the Business Secretary labelled his former Brexit co-conspirator the “Tory Peter Mandelson”.
Gove, by all measures, was loving it.
But underneath all of the usual drama of a political conference, there was a tangible shame within the Conservative Party.
How had they gone from a monumental win in 2019 to many Red Wall MPs accepting the likelihood of losing their seats next time voters went to the polls?
There is a danger of unthinkingly accepting conventional wisdom, and if the conference had been, as last year was, a big party, there would be many in the country contemptuous of a lack of solemnity at a time of crisis upon crisis for households.
Liz Truss badly needed to portray an image of seriousness and stability and instead was thrown wildly off course by not one but two u-turns, first abandoning plans to abolish the 45p tax cut and then by suggestions the other half of the budget, originally marked in the diary for November, would be brought forward. That was before collective responsibility in the cabinet had unravelled before her eyes.
Kwasi Kwarteng, her chancellor, was facing accusations of being “embattled” only weeks into the job.
His speech to conference was, by all accounts, fine. It didn’t rock the boat, it had a hint of contrition after a frightfully fast reverse ferret. But the loudest cheers were still clinging on to a promise to repeal any EU legislation still holding the country back.
Brexit has for the last four years been the glue holding the party together. Under Johnson, the party attempted to pivot to the culture wars to drum up a similar base of support. Truss’ tack is to focus on “true blue” Conservative values of cutting taxes and deregulation.
Neither have been as sticky as the party needs.
As much as Birmingham was abuzz with drama and Labour’s conference in Liverpool last week was set alight with excitement, an election is a long way off. There is a hard winter ahead and Truss needs to stay friends with the business community to keep the economy from plunging back into a deeper gloom than it already is.
At a lunch with business leaders on Tuesday, she reaffirmed her position as a tax-cutting Tory, but admitted “now was not the time”. This pivot back to a place closer to the status quo was welcomed, as were plans to bring forward the costings of Kwarteng’s mini-budget. But many were concerned at the longevity of her promises.
If the Conservative party was facing an existential crisis over its fiscal ideology in the leadership contest, it is far from resolved. The only difference is now, a very real crisis of a turbulent economy has been layered on over the top of it.
The prime minister made a splash in her first month, and now she needs to learn to swim without sending shockwaves through the country.