Is the battle between Trump and Clinton much closer than current polls suggest?
Donald Trump could be much closer to securing the White House than many American polls suggest.
Figures from ABC News earlier today handed Trump's rival Hillary Clinton a lead of 12 points over Trump among American voters.
And the billionaire Apprentice star has seen his odds drift with bookmakers since his comments on sexual assault, branded by Trump as “locker-room talk”, emerged.
However, new figures suggest the race for the presidency could end up being far closer than predicted, with Trump and Clinton possibly even set for a dead heat.
Research from FTI Consulting looked to adapt to some of the lessons of the UK's shock vote to leave the EU, with a particular focus on turnout, noting Trump voters – like Brexiteers – are significantly more likely to hit the ballot box.
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In an online survey of 1,000 Americans, the firm found that Clinton supporters rated themselves as more likely to be discouraged from voting in 13 different scenarios, including poor weather, social commitments and a busy day at work.
Indeed, one in five backers of the Democratic candidate said they could be discouraged from voting by waiting time at polling both.
“Similar to our polling results around the EU referendum and the Leave voters, supporters for Trump claim are significantly more motivated to actually vote, less distracted by various scenarios which might prevent them from voting and are less likely to potentially change their minds,” FTI Consulting managing director Dan Healy said.
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Healy added that polls in the US could be skewed by the fact that so many take place over the phone, with Trump in a similar situation to the Conservatives prior to the 2015 General Election, when David Cameron's party were boosted by a “shy Tory” vote.
Including these factors, the firm is currently estimating a 30 per cent share of the popular vote for Trump, compared to 27 per cent for Clinton, however, this would not necessarily map to a Trump victory.
“We don’t expect Trump to triumph because of the electoral college set-up, but we are expecting a large voter turnout and for him to perform better in the popular vote than what others are predicting.
“A lot can happen over the following weeks as voters make their minds up and whether they will actually vote.”