Aviation bosses confident Burnham won’t abandon third runway
The aviation industry is confident that Andy Burnham won’t abandon the government’s flagship expansion of Heathrow, despite the Prime Minister and transport secretary distancing themselves from the megaproject at Labour conference.
Several industry figures told City AM that ministers’ refusal to endorse the multibillion-pound third runway development was a sign Burnham had not yet evaluated the merits of expansion, and there was no evidence of a slowing across the rest of government.
“There’s a lot of stuff the state is being asked to do to get expansion ready, and none of that is being slowed down, none of that is being stopped,” one executive involved in the expansion said. “If it’s something that they wanted to just stick a pin in straight away, I would have thought that you’d be slowing down or pausing or just pulling altogether some of that work.”
The future of the third runway was thrown into disarray this week, after remarks from Burnham and transport secretary Heidi Alexander appeared to show the government dramatically cooling on the ambitious infrastructure project.
In an interview with the BBC, the Prime Minister refused five times to give his support to the project, instead saying it was “a matter for London and Londoners” to decide. Meanwhile Alexander told the News Agents podcast that Heathrow’s expansion was a “very significant infrastructure project” that should be weighed up against the country’s climate obligations and its impact on locals.
The comments represent a striking departure from the full-throated support that the Keir Starmer government gave the runway, which former Chancellor Rachel Reeves singled out as a key pillar in her bid to boost economic growth.
“As our only hub airport Heathrow is in a unique position, and we cannot duck the decision any longer,” Reeves said in a speech that fired the starting gun on the project’s planning last year. “So I can confirm today that this government supports a third runway, and is inviting proposals to be brought forward by the summer.”
Burnham ‘doesn’t know what he thinks yet’
But industry heavyweights believe that the economic argument in favour of expansion will win out in Burnham’s fledgling operation, suggesting beancounters in the Treasury would balk at the cost of abandoning the project.
“Clearly those who are close to it understand the economic national importance of having an effective hub, and the reality is that at the moment we are full,” one industry chief said, adding the weekend’s events “brought some realism” to the project.
“Burnham doesn’t know what he thinks yet,” said an airline executive. “What he said [on Sunday] was basically, ‘I need to tread carefully because there’s a process that could be challenged by anyone at a later stage.'”
The government brought to a close its public consultation into the framework against which ministers would judge the applications of Heathrow and rival bidder Heathrow West. It is now expected to publish the final draft – known as the National Policy Statement – early next year.
Separately, Heathrow’s owner has conceded the ambitious 2035 deadline set by Reeves was not achievable at the current rate of progress. It said on Saturday that flights could instead be up and running a decade after the planning application was approved in 2029.
Surinder Arora, who is spearheading Heathrow West’s rival bid to build and run the expansion, told City AM he hoped Burnham’s latest remarks were a sign ministers were reconsidering the simpler expansion blueprint his group was proposing.
“My only hope and dream and wish is that the new government are… taking their time to decide what they want to do,” he said. “And I very much hope that they would look at this and say, ‘Well, actually, yes, we do need it [and] forget this delay issue. We actually have options on the table that we can deliver within our timescale, and the airlines are saying it’s affordable and deliverable.”
A spokesman for British Airways-owner IAG said: “Delivering the promise of Heathrow expansion, if scoped affordably and within the right regulatory framework, would boost jobs, business and trade across the UK.”
A Department for Transport spokeswoman said: “There is currently no live planning application for a third runway, and we cannot comment on ongoing consultation processes or prejudice them in a way that will only delay progress.
“The timeline has always been ambitious. We’ll continue to work with promoters, including Heathrow, and all other stakeholders at pace to ensure the right framework is in place for which a planning application for a third runway could be considered.”