Are the Democrats sleepwalking into the US election?
The first three days of the Democratic National Convention have progressed in the same conservative, risk averse manner of Joe Biden’s campaign so far.
Despite having addresses from three former presidents, one former presidential nominee and a host of party grandees, there will be little if anything that will be remembered from the past three days. With the final day of the conference and Biden’s speech to come tomorrow morning, UK time, the Democrats need more energy injected into the campaign, despite current polling suggesting Trump will be a one-term President.
Speakers at the virtual event have been largely reading from the same script, with little divergence in message. The recurring narrative tends to be that Donald Trump is narcissistic, un-Presidential, unfit for the job, is to blame for the US’ high rates of coronavirus deaths – and many other justified attacks – and that Biden is a decent and likable statesman. There was little discussion about the Democratic nominee’s policy agenda or his future vision for a post-coronavirus society.
Barack Obama’s speech – while brilliantly delivered and well-argued – barely spoke about Biden’s skills as a Vice President or as a policy maker. The majority of his address was a solemn rebuke to Trump’s America, followed by the promise that Biden is a more decent human being than the current White House occupant.
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Bernie Sanders’ speech on day-two was a breath of fresh air as he actually went into a morsel of policy detail. He talked about Biden’s plans to extend state-sponsored healthcare, increase the minimum wage and strengthen trade union power. However, the one-time Presidential hopeful was conspicuously singular among the speakers in being able to outline reasons to vote for Biden beyond saying: “Well, at least he’s not Trump!”
Biden’s Vice President nominee Kamala Harris kicked-off her campaign in a 20-minute speech that did not exactly set the world alight. While there were some nice moments about her upbringing and personal life, there was little substance about how she saw America’s future place in the world, about how to deal with the country’s economic disparities or even about the Democrats’ signature domestic issue – healthcare.
Biden’s large national polling lead – around 10 points in most surveys – seems to have provided the platform for a defensive campaign strategy. Instead of explaining why he should be the next President, beyond his White House experience, the campaign messaging revolves around why Trump is unfit for office. Was this not the exact same message that failed four years ago?
When looking at polling data for key swing states that won Trump the election in 2016 – Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan and Wisconsin – Biden’s average lead over the President is around five points. This is not far out of the margin of error and comes during a pandemic where Trump’s ineptitude has led to many needless deaths. It also comes before Trump has even began to ramp up his campaign in earnest.
After seeing what Trump could do in the lead-up to the 2016 election, will it really be enough for Biden to just say he’s a safe pair of hands? If people overlooked Trump’s many personal foibles in the last election, will highlighting them this time really tip the balance?
Biden’s campaign needs to have a stronger, more convincing narrative if the Democrats are going to overturn the 2016 result. We have seen in the Anglosphere that successful recent political campaigns are based on simple narratives that cut through to voters. These are often distilled into adroit slogans that can be hammered home repeatedly.
Trump’s “Make America Great Again” and Brexit’s “Take Back Control” perfectly underlined the feeling of betrayal felt by working class people as a result of the last 30 years of globalisation. Obama’s “Yes we can” and “Change we can believe in” were simple pointers to a unifying and progressive vision of America with a young, sleek and eloquent Senator at leading the charge.
If we had to distill Biden’s campaign narrative to a slogan, what would it be? It would likely be some variant of “Trump is a misogynist, xenophobic, uninformed, derisive, divisive, narcissist and Biden isn’t all that bad.”
I, for one, am unconvinced it is enough to defeat a man who was able to see off every conceivable attack about his personality in 2016 to still win. People heard Trump admit on camera that he relished sexually assaulting women, they saw him demonstrate no deep understanding of policy or foreign affairs and they saw him bully his opponents every day on the campaign trail. If swing voters were not turned off in 2016 by this behaviour then perhaps it is time for the Democrats to pursue a different strategy to secure Biden an election win.