Markets awaiting USdata
There could be an eerie sense of trepidation about the markets this week as tomorrow brings us the first anniversary of the Dow’s biggest ever one-day points loss of 777 points, triggered by the failure of the financial bailout bill in the House of Representatives.
Wall Street ended last week with its biggest weekly drop in two months after uncertain economic news and the week ahead could well see traders remain on the defensive.
There is a heap of top-shelf economic data due out this week which traders will be sensitive to. Tomorrow we have GDP out in the UK and US consumer confidence and on Wednesday we’ll have US GDP data.
Thursday sees no let up with initial jobless claims, the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey and prices paid index, plus US personal income and savings data. Then Friday hits us with the number one economic release from the States, non-farm payrolls. Forecasts for the payrolls suggest a 21st consecutive monthly decline, but at a consensus of around 180,000 jobs cut, it could be the smallest drop in a year.
So it’s a data-heavy week and it’s a particularly difficult call for the opening levels of stock markets.
GFT are calling the markets to open tentatively higher but be ready for sharp and sudden selling to kick in if the data provides the slightest excuse. The early call on the FTSE 100 is for an open around the 5,092 level, up 10 points from Friday’s close. The German DAX is too close to call either with an election win for Angela Merkel priced in, and a quiet unchanged opening is forecast. The French CAC is seen having a cautious opening around 2 points up the call.
Martin Slaney is head of derivatives at GFT Global Markets