CITY VIEWS: DO YOU THINK THAT UNEMPLOYMENT HAS REACHED A PEAK?
PHIL CAULDER UBS
“No, I think that there is more to come. Small businesses are still struggling, particularly consumer-facing ones. I think it will be at least until the end of the year, if not early next year, before things start to get anywhere near normal.”
COLIN ELLIS DAIWA SECURITIES SMBC
“No, I don’t think so. The economy will probably post a modest growth in the second quarter and, if you look at what happened in the 90s, unemployment is likely to be about 18 months behind the economy. I expect more jobs to be lost.”
JOHN FIRTH ACCLIMATISE RISK MANAGEMENT
“I think unemployment will rise significantly because of cut-backs in the public service sector, which I expect to be severely under stress for some time. But the private sector may improve by the end of this year or the beginning of next.”