Murray to progress but it won’t be easy against Ljubicic
ANDY MURRAY vs IVAN LJUBICIC
TODAY – FROM 1PM, BBC
WIMBLEDON’S large contingent of British fans has been happy to declare Andy Murray as its own so far, but he’ll soon be dismissed as a grumpy Scot if he bites the dust against his third round opponent Ivan Ljubicic.
Murray has come through his opening two matches with relative ease, save for an early scare in the first round against Spain’s Daniel Gimeno-Traver, but Ljubicic will provide the fourth seed with his first real test of the tournament. Ljubicic certainly has more to fear of the pair, and I don’t disagree with the layers that Murray will continue his SW19 progress at the expense of the Croatian. However, with prices as short as 1/20 for a Murray victory I will be keeping my hands in my pockets when it comes to the win market.
At 32 years of age, and five years after his best ever ATP ranking of number three, Ljubicic’s career is undoubtedly in its autumn stage, but he’s by no means past it just yet. His current ranking of 33 means he just missed out on a seeding and, by beating 27th seed Marin Cilic, proved he can still mix it with the best on the circuit. He has been around the block, so to speak, which will help him keep his cool in front of thousands of Murray-supporting Brits, and we’ve seen before how the more experienced players can take advantage if Murray gets frustrated and his signature petulance creeps in. It did when he swung for the net and, separately, at his shoe on Wednesday.
William Hill go 4/7 for Murray to win in straight sets, but a 3-1 win at 11/4 with the same firm strikes me as a better bet. Although Murray has twice produced convincing victories he is still a long way from hitting the form that he showed when he beat Andy Roddick in the semi-final at Queen’s. Murray never looked in complete control against second round rival Tobias Kamke and managed to tot up 19 unforced errors.
Ljubicic’s big weapon is his serve and he is no stranger to a tie-break; at 6-6 in any given set, the pressure of expectation will all be on Murray. If we expect a couple of sets to go the distance and Ljubicic to grab a set, it follows that we should also buy total games at 37 with Sporting Index.
In the outright market, Roger Federer is the lone favourite at 3.05 (2/1) on Betdaq, but there’s not much to choose between any of the top four of Rafa Nadal, Novak Djokovic and Murray. However, look just outside that group and there are some big prices and, therefore, good trading opportunities. Last year’s defeated finalist Tomas Berdych is currently 52.0 (50/1) but he is blessed with the pretty easy draw of Alex Bogomolov Jr in round three and either Mardy Fish or Robin Hasse in the fourth. Back the Czech now and lay off before a likely meeting with Nadal in the quarters.