Both sides do battle in war for independents
THE president of the United States, according to the late Clinton Rossiter, is America’s “Manager of Prosperity”. Presidents sink or swim on their economic records. When the economy booms, $15 trillion in activity can – no matter how absurd – be attributed to the astute management of one man. The same is obviously true in a downturn.
Facing re-election, President Barack Obama has repeatedly blamed Congressional Republicans for halting his “common sense” measures to boost market confidence and create jobs. His argument has been simple: if the Republicans don’t want to help me build a recovery, they can own the malaise. But after years of dire job numbers, the Department of Labor released figures pointing towards a nascent economic recovery. In January the US economy added 243,000 jobs, resulting in unemployment falling to a three year low of 8.3 per cent. To top the day off, the Nasdaq surged to an 11-year high. Having largely disowned the economy, President Obama is now suddenly seizing it back.
This changes November’s narrative. President Obama may go into the election with an economic record worth defending. The Republicans will have to convince voters that with Obama at the helm the ship is still heading towards the rocks. They can even point to Obama’s inconsistent message. Just a few months ago Obama was claiming that the “do-nothing” Republicans in Congress were stalling the recovery through their inaction. Now he’s asking Republicans not to move a muscle and “muck it up.”
But behind the positive headlines remain some deeply worrying trends. Over 1.3m Americans – a 30-year high – dropped out of the labour market in January. The unemployment rate is dropping, in large part because the labour market is shrinking. The real unemployment rate, including those that have simply given up looking for work, is in excess of 10 per cent. They are the forgotten statistics of the Obama “recovery”. Or so the Republicans will say. Obama will need to give voters more than just numbers. Voters will need to see the recovery for themselves in their neighbourhoods.
The Obama campaign will continue to focus on Mitt Romney, even after the frontrunner witnessed some miserable results on Tuesday night. Having won Nevada on Saturday, the Romney campaign will be asking how it couldn’t seal the deal in Minnesota and, especially, Colorado. Rick Santorum’s stunning victories in both states – as well as the non-binding Missouri primary – gives his campaign new purpose. He now looks increasingly like the alternative to Romney, but needs money. Just three weeks ago, Newt Gingrich enjoyed a 21-point lead in Minnesota, where he ultimately finished last. His post-Nevada press conference led one reporter to ask him how he could go forward “if Mitt Romney is still in your head”. Everyone is now asking the same question.
Some pundits claim that the Republicans are suffering from an enthusiasm gap. Turnout in Florida, Nevada, Colorado and Minnesota was lower than 2008. But mobilising the party faithful shouldn’t be their only concern. Polls suggest that the longer the Republican race goes, the more independent voters are turned off by the negativity and shift to Obama. Signs of an economic recovery will exacerbate the problem. Mounting a campaign without the base is a major concern. Winning one without independents is impossible.
Ewan Watt is a Washington, DC-based consultant. You can follow him on @ewancwatt