Expect the Red Rose to rejoice in Rome
ITALY vs ENGLAND
Tomorrow – 4.00pm BBC One
IT was by no means a classic performance, but England’s new boys can be pleased to have a first Six Nations win under their belts. Victory was all that was asked of them against defensively-minded opposition at Murrayfield and the Red Rose’s gutsy performance was a hint that this team will get better and better with more experience of playing together.
Against Italy at the Stadio Olimpico Stuart Lancaster’s men can expect more of the same. Recent visits to Rome have been hard-fought affairs. England laboured to a 17-12 victory in 2010 and a 23-19 win two years before that. These results are not exceptional — the Azzurri humbled France at the venue last year, beating them by a point — and show that Italy can be a match for anyone when spurred on by their own fans.
Italy gave a good account of themselves and new coach Jacques Brunel in Paris last week, showing a certain amount of attacking promise, but ultimately left too many gaps for the French backs to exploit and lost by 18 points. This is again likely to be the Italians’ downfall, with England’s runners hungry to cross the try line after a disappointing tally of one, courtesy of a charged down kick, last week.
Despite not touching down himself, England’s outside centre Brad Barritt looked a constant threat in Edinburgh, and he is a worth a small bet at 16/1 with Bet Butler to score the first try tomorrow. The tries Italy conceded last week came from two wingers and two centres, while the last Englishman to score a try against Italy in Rome was Mathew Tait, wearing the number 13 shirt.
England should be strong enough in defence to overturn their eight point handicap or, in other words, win by more than a try and a penalty. The advice is to back England (-8) at 10/11 with Coral.
Fans will remember England running riot over the Azzurri at Twickenham last year, Chris Ashton scoring four of his side’s eight tries in a 59-13 win. While I don’t expect such a landslide this time, the threat of a repeat is enough to put me off selling points at 35 with Sporting Index. Instead, sell tries at 3.2. A rampant France managed four last week and I cannot see England matching that.
POINTERS…
England (-8) at 10/11 with Coral
Brad Barritt to score the first try at 16/1
with Bet Butler
Sell total tries 3.2 with Sporting Index
FRANCE vs IRELAND
Tomorrow – 8.00pm BBC Two
PHILIPPE SAINT-ANDRE’S France demonstrated why they are favourites for the Six Nations Championship with a consummate performance against Italy last weekend. Their opponents put up quite a fight and perhaps deserved more than defeat by 18 points, but France’s class was never in question. Importantly, Les Bleus looked like a team once more – their motto last week might have been borrowed from a famous French author: they certainly played ‘all for one and one for all’.
Blessed with a second consecutive home game to start their campaign, there is no reason why they should not also be backed to get a result against much tougher opposition, in this case Ireland. Declan Kidney was left cursing the luck of the Irish against Wales on Sunday, when his side lost thanks to Leigh Halfpenny’s last-gasp penalty. The manner of defeat will not do much to boost the confidence of a side that will need all the help it can get to beat the World Cup runners-up.
France are available outright at 1/4 with Coral, who again offer a 20 percent bonus should your team win by more than 13 points, and while I’m more than happy to take this, I’d be much more cautious about backing France with a nine-point handicap. Ireland remain one of the best attacking sides in the tournament, glimpses of outstanding hands last week between Gordon D’Arcy, Fergus McFadden and Tommy Bowe proving so. From set pieces Ireland can cause trouble too, particularly while Paul O’Connell enjoys the form of his life.
That’s not to say Ireland are good enough to topple their opponents at the Stade de France, only that it might be closer than expected. Those who are looking to make more bang for their buck should consider backing the hosts to lead at both half-time and full-time, at 8/15 with Bet Butler. Only one of the last six Six Nations meetings between these sides have featured less than 43 points so there seems little downside to buying total points at 43 with Sporting Index. A repeat of the 2006 meeting in Paris would be just the ticket: a huge total of 74 points was scored then.
POINTERS…
France at 1/4 with Coral
France HT/FT at 8/15 with Bet Butler
Buy total points at 43 with Sporting Index
WALES vs SCOTLAND
Sunday – 3.00pm BBC One
WALES are a best priced 1/8 with Coral to beat Scotland at the Millennium Stadium and it’s little surprise. Warren Gatland’s men caused an upset in Dublin to set up a potential Grand Slam decider with France on the final day of the Championship, while Scotland floundered despite being given opportunities at Murrayfield. I cannot advise anyone but those with the deepest of pockets to back the hosts at that price though, but backing them on the handicap (-13) at 10/11 with Coral also makes sense.
As discussed last week, Andy Robinson’s Scotland struggle to score tries and again failed to cross the try line against England. That makes it just 20 in 25 matches. With fly-half Dan Parks announcing his retirement so soon after another trusted kicker, Chris Paterson, the Scots must now rely on the inexperienced Grieg Laidlaw to pick up points from spot kicks.
Conversely, the Red Dragons can score from anywhere. They have a wealth of kicking ability in Halfpenny, Rhys Priestland and James Hook; a strong and quick back three which includes the ever-improving 19-year-old George North; and powerful, darting front men such as Toby Faletau. Absences remain a concern for them – Bradley Davies is banned and captain Sam Warburton is still an injury doubt – but they were missing key players against Ireland and it didn’t seem to bother them then.
On the basis of last week’s performance, Scotland don’t have a hope in the cauldron of Cardiff, amid the incredible atmosphere of the Millennium Stadium’s first Six Nations game of 2012. I fear a rout might be on the cards so advise buying Wales’ supremacy at 15 with Sporting Index.
POINTERS…
Wales (-12) at 10/11 with Coral
Buy Wales’ supremacy at 15 with Sporting Index