The stakes are high in Romney’s home state
DESPITE the insistence from one of his advisers that Michigan is not a “must-win,” the state is a crucial test of Mitt Romney’s candidacy. The media have already prepared the stinging headlines in the event Rick Santorum springs the surprise of the contest and wins in the Great Lakes. Romney, however, still has time to write headlines of his own.
Santorum’s 15-point lead in Michigan has all but evaporated, with most polls showing a statistical dead heat. In addition, for the first time in the campaign Santorum has been distracted and pushed off message. When he should be talking about eradicating corporation tax for American manufacturing, Santorum is fighting accusations of religious bigotry . Suggesting that Barack Obama’s Christian denomination is based on “some phony theology” will do that.
Although neither is expected to seriously challenge the frontrunners in Michigan and Arizona on Tuesday, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul could play decisive roles in swinging both states for Romney. Gingrich has largely avoided any direct attacks against Santorum, but another $10m cheque from Sheldon Adelson may signal a shift. Adelson’s motivation for doing so may be behind his opposition to Santorum rather than his desire to propel the former speaker to the White House. Adelson is not entirely averse to a Romney candidacy either. The messages emanating from the Gingrich campaign in the coming days will be quite telling.
While Paul has tacitly acknowledged that he could do business with Romney, he has been entirely forthcoming about his disdain for Santorum. When it’s mattered, Paul has torn into Gingrich and Santorum’s chequered histories, aiding Romney in the process. His campaign is running ads on the conservative Fox News channel accusing Santorum of doing everything from embracing big government to bankrolling dictators. If Paul believes that social conservatism is “a losing position” he’s clearly determined to make it even more so.
In Arizona, Romney has maintained a slender lead. The Copper State is actually more important in terms of delegates, with the winner taking all 29, whereas Michigan’s 30 delegates are divided proportionally. Romney is also likely to benefit from a high early turnout, with approximately 200,000 ballots already having been cast. However, Romney still has a great deal of work to do. The conservative National Review warned that Romney is missing a golden opportunity to “go big” and offer a policy initiative to substantially differentiate his candidacy from the field. On Friday he’s giving a widely publicised speech at Ford Field before the Detroit Economic Club. The media – and thousands of undecided voters – will demand more than a campaign stump speech.
A disappointing Tuesday for Romney will increase calls for a new candidate like former Florida governor Jeb Bush to enter the race. Winning Michigan and Arizona will create momentum and set the ideal stage for Super Tuesday on 6 March. At the time of writing, the candidates had yet to lock horns in Mesa, Arizona for their final debate before Tuesday’s primaries. The debates in South Carolina and Florida proved decisive in picking the eventual winner. In the latter, Romney significantly raised his game when it mattered. Wednesday night should be no different. As the candidate himself points out in his current commercial, “Michigan has been my home, and this is personal.”
Ewan Watt is a Washington DC-based consultant. You can follow him on @ewancwatt