City panel says Greece looks increasingly likely to exit euro
GREECE’S exit from the euro is looking increasingly likely, according to the overwhelming majority of our readers’ panel.
Eighty-six per cent of our panellists, who have been specially recruited to represent London’s financiers and business people, said they thought Greece’s exit from the euro was either very or somewhat likely. Just fourteen per cent thought the troubled country was likely to stay inside the single currency.
The panellists were surveyed last week, before yesterday’s attempts to form a new Greek government. When we asked panellists whether Greece would leave the euro back in June 2011, 71 per cent said it would against 21 per cent who thought not, suggesting sentiment toward the country has turned more bearish.
Meanwhile, the vast majority of panellists said the election of socialist François Hollande as French President would threaten stability in the Eurozone. Three quarters of panellists clearly disagree with the argument that Hollande will be far less radical than his election campaign suggested, and said his presence in the Élysée Palace would threaten stability in the Eurozone in some way.
Just six per cent thought Hollande would boost stability in the single currency bloc while 18 per cent said his election would have no effect.
But Hollande’s eye-catching pledge to tax those earning over €1m at 75 per cent could be good news for London’s prime property market, our panellists said. Sixty-eight per cent said they thought French millionaires would likely move to London to avoid the tax, against 29 per cent who thought such an exodus was unlikely.
And over half of panellists (57 per cent) rejected calls for less austerity, arguing that market reforms – not more government spending – was the way to boost growth in the Eurozone. Just five per cent said more government spending alone would boost growth.
However, almost a third (28 per cent) of panellists appear to think that more government spending combined with market reforms is the best way to boost growth in the Eurozone, an unusually high reading for a panel that is normally vehemently against high state spending.