Friday 20 June 2014 10:22 am | Updated: Wednesday 29 May 2019 9:04 pm

As a leading Chinese banker says Brexit would not be disastrous, are the warnings overdone?

Ruth Lea, economic adviser to the Arbuthnot Banking Group, says Yes.

Wang Hongzhang’s comments are welcome and significant. As chairman of the huge China Construction Bank (CCB), named as the first Chinese bank designated for offshore renminbi trading in London, he cannot be ignored.

By observing that “it is the age of globalisation”, he pinpoints the vital, irrefutable truth underlying Britain’s future trade relationships: future growth for the City, as for any other key exporter, will be in buoyant and expanding non-EU markets, not in the mature and stagnant EU. Moreover, the “status quo” of the UK’s relationship with the EU is not an option.

As the Eurozone integrates, Britain’s marginalisation can only increase, and its influence decline. It will become increasingly clear that it’s better to be free of the EU’s overly restrictive and, arguably, hostile regulatory regime, where the government fights, and loses, rearguard actions in the European Court of Justice.

The dangers of a Brexit for the City are indeed overblown.

Alisdair McIntosh, director of Business for New Europe, says No.

London is the financial centre of Europe. We handle 74 per cent of Europe’s forex trading, 40 per cent of global trading in euros, 85 per cent of Europe’s hedge fund assets and 42 per cent of its private equity funds.

There are 250 foreign banks in London, employing 160,000 people. One reason they are here is because of our place in the European Union. The UK stumbling out of Europe would fatally undermine London’s position. But it’s not just London that should worry. The UK is the third-largest recipient of foreign direct investment in the world. Investors come partly because we are in the EU; if we left, investment would drop.

EU membership is worth up to £80bn a year to the UK, according to the Confederation of British Industry, and it supports huge numbers of jobs across the country. An exit would damage our whole economy.

That’s why the CBI, the Institute of Directors and the Engineering Employers’ Federation are all adamant that the UK should stay.