The Black Cats won’t block City’s path to cup success
BEN CLEMINSON AND BILL ESDAILE WITH THE BEST FOOTBALL AND RACING BETS
FAILURE is unthinkable for Manchester City in Sunday’s Capital One Cup final against Sunderland – but they know as well as anyone that favourites don’t always win at Wembley. Last season’s FA Cup final is a perfect case study of David toppling Goliath after Wigan’s shock 1-0 victory over City.
But this time I don’t sense an upset.
Gus Poyet has dramatically improved the Black Cats’ fortunes since taking over from Paolo Di Canio, hauling them off the foot of the table and into a first major final since 1992. However the gulf in class is monumental.
City surely won’t make the same mistake twice. Manuel Pelligrini’s side are as short as 3/10 to win in normal time and 1/6 to lift the trophy – Sunderland are 10/1 and 5/1 respectively.
Given those odds it might pay to look at other markets as, despite my confidence in City, I can see it being a closer affair than the prices suggest. Only twice in the last decade has this particular showpiece been settled by more than a single goal, but there were extenuating circumstances. Manchester United hammered newly promoted Premier League rivals Wigan 4-0 in 2006 and, 12 months ago, Swansea thrashed League Two outfit Bradford 5-0.
A more suitable benchmark is likely to be City’s 1-0 triumph in the 2011 FA Cup final against Stoke.
Free-scoring City have rattled in 118 goals so far this campaign but have been strangely impotent during February.
They fired blanks versus Chelsea, Norwich and Barcelona and only netted against Stoke in the league and Chelsea in the FA Cup, meaning they have hit the target just three times so far this month.
Furthermore, Sunderland have actually beaten City four times on the trot – 1-0 on each occasion – at home in the top-flight.
This is offset somewhat by a poor away record in the fixture – they have not won at City since a trip to Maine Road in 1998 – but it indicates that the underdogs will be competitive.
I can’t make a strong enough case for Poyet’s charges to win – but the draw half-time/City full-time double result is well worth a look at Star Sports’ 16/5.
The scoreline I particularly fancy is 2-0, which can be backed at 13/2, again with Star Sports.
This prediction also allows us to challenge Sporting Index by selling total goals, with the sport spread betting firm’s traders having priced the market at 3.15-3.35.
Pointers…
Draw half-time / Man City full-time at 16/5 with Star Sports
Man City to win 2-0 at 13/2 with Star Sports
Sell total goals at 3.15 with Sporting Index