How Chelsea have outsmarted their Premier League rivals by putting defence before attack
What’s the most important ingredient for a title-winning team? A dead-eyed 20-goal-a-season marksman, a quicksilver midfield playmaker, or a nimble giant of a goalkeeper?
The answer is, perhaps surprisingly, none of those. The Premier League table and data from Kickdex show that a robust, sleeves-up back line goes further than flair in other positions.
Take Chelsea. The Blues sit first in the table despite being only third best of the top four in terms of performance by forwards, midfielders and goalkeepers, as the table below shows*.
This suggests that having the best defence is worth more points than any other area.
A strong rearguard has also aided Arsenal, Chelsea’s opponents at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. The Gunners defence has been second only to Jose Mourinho’s side, while their goalkeeping displays have been the best in the league.
Arsenal’s most impressive department has been midfield, however, which has outperformed that of Chelsea, Liverpool and Manchester City. Just as well, Arsene Wenger might muse, since their forward line, reliant on Olivier Giroud, has been totally overshadowed by their rivals.
Chelsea’s firepower, too, has been lacking, so it was little surprise that their meeting in December in north London finished 0-0. That game saw both teams’ Kickdex value drop over the 90 minutes, due to their cautious approach and inability of their attackers to penetrate the strong opposing defences.
Kickex makes the leaders favourites to win tomorrow, though not by much. Their prediction has a Chelsea win at 38.3 per cent chance, a draw at 30.1 per cent, and an Arsenal win at 31.6 per cent.
*Note: The chart gives even perspective to each position, but defence and midfield tend to have greater impact on team performance as four or five players are often fielded in each department.