Five things we learned from today’s GDP figures: Could Star Wars have saved us from a post-Brexit slump?

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A surprising set of GDP results came out this morning, revealing that the resilient economy had grown by 0.5 per cent in the last quarter.

This was at odds to predictions from the Treasury earlier this year who thought that if the UK voted to leave the EU, economic growth could slow to one per cent. The results outperformed expectations from a number of economists too.

What did we learn from today's figures?

1. Star Wars COULD HAVE saved us from the impact of Brexit

OK, this sounds like a bit of a jump. But hear us out.

Despite accounting for just 0.6 per cent of the whole economy, the motion picture and TV production activity grew by 16.4 per cent in the last quarter. The results boosted GDP figures by a whole 0.1 per cent on its own.

In the past few years tax breaks for film production have attracted major companies to do their post production work here – which seems to be paying off.

Hundreds of programmers and graphic designers in London are working on Rogue One, the Star Wars spin off due out later this year, as well as the Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them – a spin off from the Harry Potter series due to be released on November. The pound's slump may also have attracted some work to the UK's visual effects houses.

2. Services sector continues to sail

This is a trend that has no signs of slowing down. The services sector was up again in the latest results, up by 0.8 per cent.

Retail grew by 1.8 per cent, and output in domestic accommodation and restaurants gew by 1.6 per cent.

This reflected results from the Purchasing Managers' Index which was out earlier this month. The services sector accounts for almost 80 per cent of the UK economy, so this bodes well for the next quarter's results.

3. Housing production has fallen slightly

Output in the construction industry is down for the first time in over a year – this figure is for the second quarter of the year, before the vote to leave the EU.

Private new housing has been rising rapidly for the past few years, but now has dropped slightly. This seems odd, considering house prices are continuing to rise albeit slightly slower than before. 

The reason for this may be because construction firms were aware that there could be an economic impact after the vote to leave, and people could have been holding off to buy.

"Likely limited housing-market activity and muted house prices could also dampen consumer spending and as well as weighing down on residential construction," said Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global.

4. Hammond's warning

The chancellor, Philip Hammond, welcomed the news, and said it proved "that the economy is resilient".

But he laced his comments with a thinly veiled warning about what could be to come.

He warned that the economy would need to "adjust to a new relationship with the EU", but it was "well-placed" to deal with the challenges – possibly preparing businesses for a bumpy road ahead.

5. Now the economists are looking to next year to find out the true impact of Brexit

​Even before the results were announced, analysts were keen to stress that these figures were just preliminary, and were unlikely to show any drastic changes.

Now they are looking to next year to tell whether the impact of the vote to leave the EU has had any lasting impact. Theresa May has said she will trigger article 50 in March, kicking off the negotiations to leave the EU, which is likely to rock the pound, and potentially the economy too.

Read more: How seven City analysts reacted to the GDP result

Paul Johnson, head of the Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the figures did not include all of the data needed to make accurate predictions about the economy, and that they could end up being revised.

You're trying to measure small changes in an absolutely enormous economy… We shouldn't make too much of any small changes.

Nancy Curtin, chief investment officer at Close Brothers Asset Management. said:

The quarter on quarter slowdown in the growth rate suggests Brexit uncertainty is having some bite, and it’s likely the ambiguity around the UK’s exit from the EU will take some of the steam out of the long-term growth rate, with anaemic growth likely to become status quo while Article 50 negotiations rumble on.

James Sproule, chief economist at the Institute of Directors said that firms continued to adopt a "wait-and-see" approach to investment.

The real test of this will be early next year when the currency impact will be more fully felt, feeding through into higher prices and causing inflation to rise towards target levels.

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