If Chequers is dead, a new battle looms: European Economic Area or Free Trade Agreement?
Chequers, the Prime Minister's official country residence, was gifted to the nation by Lord and Lady Lee after the First World War.
A stained glass window carries an inscription offering “this house of peace…as a place of rest and recreation” for Prime Ministers.
Despite this noble intention, it's hard to imagine that Theresa May associates it with peace or recreation, since her preferred Brexit plan, named of the country pile where she presented it to her cabinet, is in urgent need of some political life support and could very well precipitate the collapse of her premiership.
Things went wrong from the minute she unveiled the plan. Despite seeming to have secured cabinet agreement, David Davis was the first to go – followed by his junior minister and then the Foreign Secretary. The Chequers proposal, according to the former Brexit secretary, would be “worse than staying in the EU.”
Tory Brexiters cannot support it, and now it seems they have unlikely allies in their quest to see it off, in the form of Remain-supporting colleagues who see it as a fudge and an unnecessary complication. Chequers is “untenable” according to Justine Greening and “all but dead” according to Nick Boles.
The battle is now over what replaces it. Boles, a Remainer, is pushing for UK membership of the European Economic Area, like Norway, ostensibly with a view to negotiating a Canada-style free trade deal off the back of it. His critics in the pro-Brexit wing of the Tory party see it as a trap – delaying Brexit to the point where it just doesn't happen.
To counter this threat, they're focusing efforts on presenting a watertight blueprint for an advanced Free Trade Agreement with the EU, one which they say covers all sectors (including services) while committing to zero tariffs and pragmatic cooperation in areas such as security, data-sharing and aviation.
EU Council President Donald Tusk put a similar offer on the table months ago, and an increasing number of MPs and policy experts think the government should ditch Chequers and seize that opportunity. May is now under attack from the left and right of her own party.
If Chequers falls, she will have to pick a side. Expect to hear the case for an advanced Free Trade Agreement made with increasing vigour in the run up to the Tory party conference.