Is Bukayo Saka suffering from burnout? The stats that show Arsenal’s star’s slump
Arsenal and Mikel Arteta might be preoccupied with contentious refereeing decisions after suffering their first Premier League defeat of the season at Newcastle on Saturday, but there is another issue closer to home – the form of Bukayo Saka – that shouldn’t be overlooked.
Since returning from the hamstring injury he suffered in the Champions League defeat at Lens a month ago, Saka has not looked the same player and reams of statistics back up the anecdotal evidence that he has not been as productive as earlier in the season.
For two years, the England winger has been Arsenal’s main attacking threat, but in four starts since the injury he has lurked on the fringes. In his first eight and a half matches of the campaign he scored five times. Post-layoff, he is yet to find the net.
It is no coincidence, because Saka is manufacturing fewer attempts on goal. His average shots per game is down from 2.35 to 1, while he is yet to have an effort on target since the injury, having averaged 1.06 per game earlier in the season.
Even when not scoring, Saka is usually a reliable source of assists but that steady flow has dried up too, from 0.47 per game to 0.25. The only goal he has made since returning to the team was his cross for Leandro Trossard’s equaliser at Chelsea.
Again, that declining output is reflected in more complex data. His shot-creating actions are down from 4.7 to 4 per game, while his goal creating actions have similarly declined from 0.71 to 0.5 per game. His progressive passes, meanwhile, are down from 3.29 to 2 per game.
Perhaps the most visible sign of Saka’s slump has been his seeming reluctance to try to beat players. Having averaged 3.65 take-ons per game, that figure has fallen to 2.75, while his successful take-ons have dropped from 1.75 to 1 per game.
It is a similar trend in his dribbling. Saka has gone from 38.47 carries and 5.06 successful carries per game to 28.5 and 4 since his three-week absence. So the stats, from nerd’s goldmine FBref.com, support what has been clear to the naked eye.
The reason is more difficult to pinpoint. Is Saka still suffering with his hamstring? Is it just taking him time to reach full speed again? Or is a player who set a new Arsenal record of 87 consecutive Premier League appearances before the injury simply knackered?
“When you look at the top players, they are there every three days and they are winning games for their team,” he said last week. “So I’m trying to be at that level, and to be at that level I need to push myself. Of course, it’s difficult, but I’m trying to do it and give it my best.
“I’m a guy who always wants to be on the pitch, always wants to give my best, and if I’m injured and I have to be forced to be out, then of course I will sit out. But as long as I’m there and I’m ready to play, I am always going to give my best and tell them that I want to play.”
Saka says his focus is not on the risk of burnout, which is what you might expect a player to say. But his recent form suggests that at least Arteta or the club’s medical department should be concerned about overworking their most potent player.