Government stuck in public services ‘doom loop’, top think tank warns
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The government is stuck in a “doom loop” with the UK’s public services “in a dire state”, a top think tank has warned.
An annual report on UK public services has forecast that almost all services, other than child social care, could perform worse in 2027-2028 when compared to pre-pandemic levels.
This is due to government spending plans from April 2025, which Labour have also agreed to, according to the Institute for Government (IfG) annual public services stocktake.
Nick Davies, IfG programme director, warned: “Public services are in a dire state and will likely deteriorate further if whoever forms the next government sticks to current spending plans.”
Settlements for unprotected spending areas average -1.2 per cent a year in real terms, the joint report with the Chartered Institute of Public Finance and Accountancy (CIPFA), warned.
The Performance Tracker 2023 focuses on nine sectors: GPs, hospitals, adult social care, children’s social care, schools, neighbourhood services, police, criminal courts and prisons.
It warned of public sector workers operating out of “crumbling and cramped” buildings with many services in a “full-blown workforce crisis”, risking a government “stuck in a doom loop”.
The report cited: a record crown court backlog of more than 64,700 cases in June; record hospital waiting lists of 7.8m in August; 30 per cent fewer teachers beginning training in 2022-23 than are expected to be needed; and a record child social care vacancy rate.
Experts have urged government to bring in multi-year public service budgets; long-term capital programmes; a stable long-term policy agenda; and a reset relationship with staff.
CIPFA CEO Rob Whiteman said: “I hope it serves as a reminder of just how damaging the last few years have been and acts as a roadmap to building more resilient services for all. I only hope that whoever takes the keys to No10 next year keeps this in mind.”
A government spokesperson said: “We are committed to backing our frontline services.
“We have invested record levels of funding in the NHS, as well as a further £14.1bn to cut wait times. School funding is up by over £3.9bn this year, reaching the highest level in real terms per pupil in history.”
They added: “As we continue to spend record levels on public services to avoid tax increases for working people, we must accelerate reform so frontline workers can focus on what they do best – teaching our children, treating us when we’re sick and keeping us safe.”