England to be low scorers against Andorra
England are a best priced 1/50 with Ladbrokes to see off a side ranked 186th in the FIFA World rankings. Incidentally, the “hosts” can be backed at a massive 80/1 with Boylesports to win the game and the draw is a top priced 30/1 with Betdaq.
Andorra have avoided defeat in only three of their 53 competitive fixtures to date and have only managed to score in 15 of those matches (or should I say mismatches!).
They have lost all 23 of their previous matches against higher ranked teams, losing by three or more goals in nearly three quarters (17 of 23) of them.
However, England have a history of struggling against weaker opposition and particularly so in the first half.
The Three Lions have played 14 competitive games this decade away to teams ranked outside the top 50, with none of the games producing more than one first-half goal (eight 0-0s, four 1-0 leads and two 0-1 deficits).
The “Draw” at half-time/“Win” at full time is therefore the most common double result (6 from 14 in that period), with England managing only three Win/Win’s (Liechtenstein, Azerbaijan and Estonia) in that time.
Therefore the 1/20 available with Coral about England leading at the break before going on to win seems plenty short enough and I’d definitely be a layer rather than a backer at that price.
I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off having a few quid on Draw/England at over 7/1 with Betdaq.
Yet, the best trading opportunity looks to be backing under 4.5 goals in the game at around 5/6 (1.84) on the exchanges.
All of Andorra’s last six games have featured 3 or fewer goals and since they lost 7-0 in Croatia last October, only one of their thirteen fixtures since has had more than 4.5 goals. Admittedly, they’ve played some equally bad sides in that time, but they have also managed to contain Russia, Israel and England along the way.
Looking more generally at recent mismatches (a team ranked in the top 25 away to one outside the top 100) in UEFA qualifying competitions, the big sides have won 53 of the 59 games. The interesting trend from our point of view is that a sizable majority (36 of those 59) have also featured under 3.5 goals.