Labour faces hat trick of losses in ‘super Thursday’ elections
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Labour is staring down a potential hat trick of devastating defeats in today’s “super Thursday” elections, which would put serious pressure on leader Sir Keir Starmer.
A poll out on Tuesday put Labour 17 points behind the Conservatives in the Hartlepool by-election – a constituency Labour has always held – while the party also trails by double digits in polling for crucial mayoral contests in Tees Valley and the West Midlands.
A loss in Hartlepool would be a further erosion of Labour’s so-called northern Red Wall, which turned blue in many places for the first time in Boris Johnson’s 2019 General Election victory.
The two mayoral contests are also in places where Labour would need to drastically improve its vote if it were to win a future General Election.
The Tories’ potential sweep of these three elections would pile pressure on Starmer, particularly by those on the left of the Labour party.
Both sides were managing expectations ahead of today’s suite of elections.
Starmer said Labour’s electoral recovery was always going to take longer than one year, after the party suffered its worst defeat for 84 years in the December 2019 election.
“We are having a very positive reception on the doorsteps, we are going into tomorrow in good spirit,” he said.
“Whatever the results are, I will take responsibility, as I take responsibility for everything in the Labour party.
“This is the first test and we go into that test fighting for every vote, but I never thought we would climb the mountain we have to climb in just one year – it is going to take longer than that.”
Johnson told a group of Tory campaigners yesterday that winning Hartlepool was a “massive, massive challenge”.
“I want to stress that a lot of people are talking about Hartlepool — I have just been there,” he said.
“I think it’s important for people to understand this is not a seat that Conservatives have ever held.
“This is the stamping ground of Peter Mandelson. It’s very important for everybody to be aware of the deep psephological reality, it’s a massive, massive challenge, it would be a quite an extraordinary thing in my view if that were to happen.”
An estimated 48m people are eligible to vote in elections across the UK today.
This includes Holyrood elections in Scotland, Welsh Senedd elections, Hartlepool’s by-election and mayoral contests in London, Greater Manchester, West Midlands, Tees Valley, Liverpool, West Yorkshire.
There are also many local council elections across the UK.
Labour is expected to fare better in mayoral elections in London, Greater Manchester, Liverpool and West Yorkshire, where their candidates are considered near certainties to win.