Vaccine rollout gives Tories a pre-election boost from over 64s, says expert pollster
The UK’s quick rollout of the Covid-19 vaccine appears to have given the Tories a boost ahead of the May local elections among those over 64, according to an expert pollster.
Lord Robert Hayward today told a group of journalists that Boris Johnson and the Conservatives’ improved poll ratings, which have been driven by an increase of support from over 64s in particular, goes “hand in hand” with the vaccine rollout.
Polling figures from Savanta ComRes show the Conservatives now have a six-point polling lead over Labour, after the two parties were neck-and-neck in December.
Hayward said the Tory lead is driven by a swing from Labour to the Tories in over-64s and that this swing was now being seen in those aged between 55 and 64.
He noted that the it was these age groups who are most likely to vote in local elections, which will be held across the country in less than two months.
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“So not only has that group moved towards the Conservatives, or has the population moved towards the Conservatives, but the people who’ve moved most towards the Conservatives are actually the people who vote generally,” he said.
“It was first of all the age group from 64 upwards that moved. There’s some sign now that the 55-year-old and upwards are also moving.
“And interestingly enough, they are the people who have got their vaccinations. So there’s clearly an element of vaccine bounce.”
Polling from Savanta ComRes also shows that Boris Johnson’s approval rating is still high in the Midlands and the North, while very low in London.
This could foreshadow difficulties for Sir Keir Starmer in picking up councils in the so-called Red Wall area of the country, where the Tories won a number of seats in traditional Labour areas in 2019.
If Starmer is not able to make inroads in these areas he will likely face calls that he is not the man to win back seats in the Midlands and North for Labour in the next General Election.
Polling also shows that 35 per cent of the UK didn’t know if Starmer had done a good job as opposition leader or not.