Social distancing may not end in 2021 even with successful vaccine rollout
Social distancing in the UK could be in place until the end of the year unless a vaccine is 85 per cent effective in stopping the transmission of coronavirus.
A sub-group of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has reportedly given Downing Street modelling that suggest a third spike in Covid deaths will happen if the vaccine does not prevent transmission on a large scale.
Manufacturers of the UK’s approved vaccines have not yet provided data to show if their jabs will reduce Covid-19 transmission.
Deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam said earlier this week that it was very likely the vaccines would reduce transmission to some degree.
The Sunday Telegraph reports that the paper by the Sage sub-group says: “Only vaccines that offer high infection-blocking efficacy with high uptake in the general population allow relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions without a huge surge in deaths.”
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When asked by the BBC if the report was true, international trade secretary said: “The autumn is a very long time away and what we need to do is focus all our efforts on getting the vaccine rolled out, making sure the proper policies and behaviour is in place now so that we can exit the coronavirus crisis as soon as possible.
“I don’t think any of us have a crystal ball where we now what the case will be in autumn, what we need to do is work really hard now rather than speculating into the medium or long-term.”
Vaccines minister Nadhim Zahawi told the Telegraph that data on the efficacy of vaccines to stop transmission should come through in about four weeks.