Japan may just upset Enable in tactical affair
NOT since Nasram beat three rivals in the 1964 renewal of the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (3.35pm) has a field of just four lined up for Saturday’s feature at Ascot.
However, what we lack in quantity, is more than made up for in quality as all are previous Group One winners.
The obvious starting point is with two-time winner Enable who is looking to rediscover the winning habit.
John Gosden’s super-talented mare has somewhat lost her cloak of invincibility since floundering in the mud behind Waldgeist in last year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
Connections have put that defeat down to the combination of rain-softened ground and tactical error.
Ghaiyyath was sent for home far earlier than expected and Frankie Dettori was forced to commit Enable a lot earlier than he had probably hoped.
That meant that they were treading water inside the final hundred metres allowing Waldgesit to thwart her historic hat-trick bid.
There is probably plenty of truth in that excuse, but there is also a chance that the six-year-old is simply not as good as she was.
She was also beaten on her reappearance at Sandown in the Coral Eclipse last time when said to have needed the race badly.
Plenty will forgive her that blip as well as she was beaten by a very good horse in Ghaiyyath.
My concern is that her connections made similar noises ahead of last year’s Eclipse and she still managed to get the job done that day.
The truth is she may not have to be at her former best to win this assignment, but it worries me that she is priced up in the market as a mare still at the very top of her game.
I’m just convinced that the Aidan O’Brien-trained JAPAN is set to give her a real fright.
The market told you that he wasn’t fully tuned up for his reappearance at Royal Ascot where he ran a little flat.
He was again weak in the betting for the Eclipse where only a neck separated him and Enable at the line.
There shouldn’t be too much between the pair again and I’d far rather side with Japan at 3/1 than I would take the 8/13 about Enable.
Last season’s English and Irish Derby winners Anthony Van Dyck and Sovereign make up the quartet.
If the thought of taking short odds about the front pair isn’t appealing, you could do a lot worse than have a speculative saver on Sovereign at a potential monster price on the Tote at tote.co.uk.
He looked more than a little ring rusty on his seasonal reappearance and has plenty to find with all three opponents on the form book.
The angle with him is purely a pace one as he looks the most likely to take them along.
If his better fancied stable companions allow him plenty of rope, Frankie Dettori will be left with a tricky decision on whether to sit with the leading contenders or chase the strong pace.
He could easily turn into the straight with a long lead and pilot error in behind could easily hand him the big prize.
If he were to touch 14/1 or 16/1 on the Tote, he may be worth a speculative wager.
Pointers
Japan 3.35pm Ascot