Champions League ban threat can play into Manchester City’s hands against Real Madrid
Manchester City’s possible two-year ban from the Champions League, starting next season, has added a couple of extra dimensions to their last-16 clash against Real Madrid on Wednesday night.
Firstly, there is the question of whether City draw extra motivation from knowing this may be their last shot at the trophy until 2022, or whether that creates an extra weight of pressure.
I firmly believe it will be the former. I think City players will have already mentally accepted the club won’t be in Europe next season – even though the suspension could yet be overturned – and that will only sharpen their focus on lifting the trophy that has eluded them.
Their mindset will be one of: win it now, deal with the rest later.
Secondly, there is the question of whether any of City’s players see this tie as a shop window – a chance to impress Madrid, a club that might hope to sign them in the summer.
If the ban, which was issued this month for historic breaches of financial fair play rules, does stand then I’d expect some of City’s biggest stars to leave.
Players like Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling may be wondering if this is the right time to move. Sterling himself has been linked with Madrid in the last few days.
Those decisions won’t be made yet but I can assure you they’ll be on players’ minds. On the other hand, De Bruyne and Sterling are past the point of needing to prove their quality, even to Madrid.
Pressure on Madrid
Madrid come into this tie with pressure of their own. This weekend they face Barcelona, who have just overtaken them at the top of LaLiga, so the next few days could be great or a catastrophe.
In Zinedine Zidane’s second spell in charge – and since Cristiano Ronaldo left – they have become more predictable, less flamboyant and are no longer a team you make time to watch.
Goalscoring is a problem. Karim Benzema has shouldered the burden this term but only has two in 12 games. Gareth Bale, Toni Kroos and Luka Modric, meanwhile, only have eight league goals between them.
The squad is in need of refreshing – it would be no surprise if that involved De Bruyne or Sterling replacing Kroos or Bale this summer – and there is nothing much for City to fear.
Technically superior
Man for man, I think Pep Guardiola’s team are technically superior. The are also boosted by the return to fitness of Aymeric Laporte and Raheem Sterling, as well as consecutive wins over West Ham and Leicester.
Liverpool’s unbelievable season has made City look ordinary but you almost have to put that to one side. In any case, they are very likely to finish second so can put all their energy into Europe.
Past failures in the Champions League won’t have been forgotten but I think City are very well placed to go a step further this time, and beating Madrid would only fuel belief that they can do that.