MRP poll explainer: What is the mega-poll and can it predict the election?
At 10pm tonight, market research firm Yougov will release the most eagerly-anticipated poll of the upcoming General Election. The so-called MRP poll is expected to be a key indicator of the outcome of the 12 December vote, and will deliver a sweeping seat-by-seat analysis. But what is the MRP and why is it so significant?
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What is the MRP poll?
MRP stands for multilevel regression and post-stratification. This is a statistical method that produces predictions based small geographic areas, analysing elements of a person’s lifestyle and background to draw probabilities of their voting habits. This is then combined with larger census data to work out how many people of a certain demographic live in each area.
The MRP process can produce a more detailed – and potentially more accurate – prediction than a normal poll.
Why the fuss?
Yougov’s MRP poll has a strong track record. It accurately predicted a hung parliament in the 2017 General Election, countering expectations that Theresa May would hold her majority for the Tory party. It also correctly projected that tightly-contested seats such as Kensington and Chelsea and Canterbury would be won by the Labour party.
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How accurate is it?
Yougov says it is the “market pioneer” of MRP, which is a relatively new technique.
“As the success of our election model shows, connected data and MRP is revolutionising research – transforming our understanding of people, whether they are voters, citizens, members, consumers or customers,” says Yougov boss Stephan Shakespeare.
However, the polling is not infallible. The methodology is based on the analysis of demographics, so if the predictions about how a certain type of person will vote are inaccurate, the wider result will be wrong.
Nevertheless, traders will be keeping a close eye on the outcome of the poll as a key indicator of who will win the upcoming election.
The MRP poll will be released at 10pm tonight with The Times and on Yougov’s election website.