The Wizard of Oz Democratic primary portends another victory for Donald Trump
The starting gun may have yet to sound in the 2020 Democratic presidential contest, but with the Iowa caucus only 90 days away, there is already a surprising amount that is clearly in focus.
First, the very crowded Democratic field has already been decisively winnowed. According the 7 November Real Clear Politics average of polls, only three candidates are presently in double digits.
That poll of polls found former vice president Joe Biden leading the field at 29 per cent support nationally, senator Elizabeth Warren next at 21 per cent, with senator Bernie Sanders closely trailing her at 18 per cent.
In terms of Iowa and New Hampshire, the first two Democratic contests, the results favour the outsiders, with Warren leading both by four points.
But among these three it is all to play for, with Indiana mayor Pete Buttigieg’s candidacy still having an outside shot of catching fire. So, given that one of this trio is highly likely to take on Donald Trump in 2020, it is worth taking a minute to handicap each of their strengths and weaknesses.
Let’s start with Biden. Despite the fact that he is consistently ahead in almost all the major national Democratic polls, Barack Obama’s vice president seems like a figure from another era.
The former vice president, currently 76, now seems a step slower on the campaign trail. After consistently mediocre-at-best debate performances and endless gaffes, Biden’s doddery demeanour is by far his greatest long-term weakness.
It is also an open question as to whether today’s Democratic party, which has moved increasingly leftwards since 2016, wants the last moderate standing as its standard bearer in the fight against Trump.
Still, Biden is actively liked by most of the Democratic establishment and African Americans (a vital party constituency), and is presently slightly ahead of President Trump in the state polls in all the battleground states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, North Carolina). He is still considered the most likely Democrat to beat Trump head-to-head.
But, in a sense, head-to-head is precisely the problem. Trump is a fearsome if unorthodox debater. The Democrats rightly fear that he could obliterate Biden in the national presidential campaign — that the old war horse’s best years are behind him.
In contrast, no one has had a better political year so far than Elizabeth Warren.
Widely written off just 12 months ago following the “Pocahontas affair”, whereby Warren claimed Native American ancestry that DNA testing did not validate, she became that worst of things, the butt of one of Trump’s savage Twitter jokes.
But remarkably, Warren has risen from the political dead, doing her homework both in terms of assembling the commonly acknowledged best campaign team, as well as in setting out detailed policy plans for just about everything.
Her unofficial slogan “I have a plan for that” has become the rallying cry for those in the party who want to go beyond merely beating Trump and onto reshaping America in line with their progressive vision.
The problem — in terms of the presidential election — is that Warren’s answers are all from the left in what remains a solidly centre-right country.
Warren is for impeaching Trump, for hugely expensive universal healthcare, passionately for higher taxes, for abortion rights with few limits, and for an almost unrestrained immigration policy. All these stances place her at odds with independent voters — the very people who tend to determine American presidential elections.
Vying with Warren for the progressive vote, senator Bernie Sanders is the ruffled, authentic voice of American socialism. Supported by a strong cadre of adherents who fell in love with him during his inspired (if failed) race against Hillary Clinton in 2016, Sanders rivals Trump in having a base that seems to be with him whatever happens — his poll numbers even remained buoyant after recently suffering a heart attack.
But 2020 is not 2016. Then, Sanders stood alone against the more moderate Clinton, uniting progressives. This time, he is neck-and-neck with Warren, who seems better prepared, more professional, and more serious than Sanders’ ramshackle campaign.
The added risk for both Sanders and Warren is that going left of Trotsky has political downsides in a country where being called a socialist still remains a derogatory epithet for many.
So, as was true of Dorothy’s companions on the Yellow Brick Road, while worthy, each of the Democratic frontrunners is missing something important that could get in the way of victory.
Given this Wizard of Oz problem, the smart money must still be on the President.
Main image credit: Getty