Cebr poll: Most Brits expect a UK recession within a year
Most Britons expect the UK economy to fall into a recession this time next year, a survey showed today, as consumer confidence tumbled to a six-year low in August.
Read more: Into the red: UK economy shrinks for first time in seven years
The latest analysis from Yougov and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr) showed 56 per cent of British people think the economy will be in a recession – when the economy shrinks for two quarters – and 19 per cent think it will be in contraction.
Only 24 per cent of Britons think the economy will be growing, Yougov said, and just one per cent think it will be booming.
Britons’ gloom comes as the UK economy is buffeted by the threat of a no-deal Brexit and a global slowdown driven by the US-China trade war.
British GDP shrank by 0.2 per cent in the second quarter of the year as the unwinding of stockpiling ready for the original March Brexit date, falling manufacturing output and lower trade volumes took a toll.
Yesterday sterling tanked against the dollar as Prime Minister Boris Johnson received the Queen’s approval to suspend parliament for five weeks until 14 October – two weeks before the Brexit deadline.
Cebr director Nina Skero said: “Economic commentators have been warning of a heightened recession risk, and our latest research shows that their expectations are matched by those of the general public.”
Gabriella Dickens, assistant economist at Capital Economics, warned that “the consumer sector may soon succumb to the malaise that has taken hold in the manufacturing sector”.
Consumer spending has propped up the UK economy in 2019, but was not enough to stop it from contracted between April and June.
“What happens with Brexit in the coming months will determine how likely households are to spend,” Dickens said.
YouGov and Cebr’s gauge of consumer confidence fell to its lowest level since 2013 in June.
An official European Union measure today gave an even worse score for UK economic sentiment with its worst reading since 2012.
Read more: Recession warning lights flash red as UK ‘yield curve’ inverts
Oliver Rowe, director of reputation research at Yougov, said: “Britons have grown progressively more cautious about the future over the last few years, and we see growing concern about house prices and the wider economy.”