England v Afghanistan: Used Old Trafford pitch and Rashid Khan’s magic the key for visitors
On the face of it England’s World Cup game against Afghanistan tomorrow comes at an opportune moment.
With opener Jason Roy sidelined by a torn hamstring for a few games at least and captain Eoin Morgan recovering from a back spasm, it appears the perfect time to play the side bottom of the group table and without a win.
But Afghanistan have never been a side to second guess; unpredictable is their modus operandi. And with the game taking place at Old Trafford on the same pitch used for India’s 89-run win over Pakistan on Sunday, conditions are set up to favour by far their strongest suit.
Read more: Betting tips: Bairstow can cash in against Afghan seamers
According to analytics app CricViz, over the past 10 years Old Trafford has offered an average of 3.57 degrees of spin – more than any other venue in England.
So far Afghanistan’s World Cup campaign has been defined by their batting failures, rather than their spin bowling. But on a wicket which saw India’s Kuldeep Yadav find sharp turn and with a bowling attack capable of springing a surprise they will be hopeful of causing an upset.
Winning the toss is crucial. Afghanistan have managed that in half of their four games, but in three of them have folded to post a sub-par score batting first, failing to bat their allotted 50 overs on each occasion.
There have been just two individual fifties, with a top score of 59, in 40 innings. Collapses have lurked around every corner, resulting in an average score of 176 which simply hasn’t given their bowlers anything substantial to defend.
If skipper Gulbadin Naib can strike lucky, win the toss and bowl first, however, he has the bowlers to trouble England’s rejigged batting line-up.
Rashid Khan may have had a quiet tournament so far, picking up just three wickets at an average of 38, but he is a brilliant leg-spinner ranked second in the world as a one-day international all-rounder and third as a bowler.
He has the temperament, skill and variations to trouble England, as evidenced by him dismissing England star Jos Buttler four times from just 10 attempts in the Indian Premier League and Big Bash. Rashid’s strike rate of 25.8 since the 2017 Champions Trophy is better than India’s Kuldeep (27.4) and Yuzvendra Chahal (29.8) and England’s Adil Rashid (31.9).
When you factor in the guile of Mohammad Nabi, whose off-spin took 4-30 against Sri Lanka, and potentially Mujeeb Ur Rahman’s mystery spin then you have a recipe for potential destruction.
Afghanistan also have another aspect in their favour: unfamiliarity. England have played them just once in an ODI – a comfortable nine-wicket win at the 2015 World Cup – and although they faced them in a warm-up match last month, the loss of just one wicket that day means that of tomorrow’s side only Jonny Bairstow and Joe Root have experience of facing their bowling in an international 50-over game.
They have been hugely disappointing in the World Cup so far, full of ill-advised shots, farcical run-outs and sloppy fielding, but if it all clicks Afghanistan have the raw ability to cause an upset.
At the beginning of a week when they can solidify their top-four position with wins over Afghanistan and Sri Lanka, England are in no mood to suffer a tournament defeat reminiscent of their famous losses at the hands of Holland and Ireland.
But if Old Trafford’s pitch turns and Rashid gets his tail up you just never know.