Change UK has no hope when it comes to voters

The Australian Labor Party enjoyed a lead in over 50 consecutive polls in the run-up to the weekend’s general election, confirming the experts’ expectations – that the Liberal Party was done for and its conservative leader Scott Morrison was out. In the end, the polls were all wrong and Morrison remains Australia’s Prime Minister.

We should remember this latest example of a discrepancy between polling data and electoral outcome as we prepare for our own European Parliament elections. The general picture as we enter polling week is that the Brexit Party is riding high, Labour’s torturous ambiguity will spare them a complete drubbing, the Tories should abandon all hope and the Liberal Democrats will do OK.

And what of the cross-party insurgency Change UK? Where does it register in the polls? The answer depends whether you discount parties that fall within the margin of error of having any recorded support at all. There may be a few surprises meted out amid the main party results. It’s possible ‘quiet Tories’ – like Morrison’s ‘quiet Australians’ – spare the party humiliation.

It’s also possible that the Brexit Party underperforms. It’s possible that Labour takes a bigger beating than they currently expect. These elections are driven by an odd cocktail of fury, apathy, revenge and tactics. Anyone who claims to have a handle on the full range of results they will produce should be taken with a pinch of salt.

However, one current observation unlikely to be undermined by the result is that Change UK constitutes an almighty, embarrassing failure. Almost everything has gone wrong for them. The party has a bad name, a confused leadership structure and it’s made a mess of working with other Remain-supporting parties – and that’s all according to one of their top celebrity candidates, Rachel Johnson.

Beyond the amusing spectacle of a party founded by professional politicians making such a hash of it all, lies a bigger problem to which voters are not blind. Change UK’s MPs span the spectrum from left to right. What, other than a desire to stop Brexit, unites former Labour MP Mike Gapes with former Tory MP Anna Soubry?

Their voting records on tax, the NHS, welfare and education are miles apart. They may be a single-issue party but voters generally seek something more and can detect political confusion when they see it, just as easily as they can detect a dodgy logo and a rubbish name.