Trevor Steven’s Premier League preview: Manchester City will see off Liverpool in a two-horse title race and Arsenal could surprise everyone | City A.M.
With the World Cup long forgotten already all focus has switched back to the Premier League and, like everyone, I’m hugely looking forward to the new season starting this weekend.
It’s the best league in the world and that’s not just my view – Chelsea’s new boss Maurizio Sarri has said it himself. People want to be part of it because it’s so exciting.
This year in particular there is a lot at stake for the leading managers, from Pep Guardiola’s attempt to become the first to retain the title since Sir Alex Ferguson to Jose Mourinho’s struggles elsewhere in Manchester and the first seasons for Sarri at Stamford Bridge and Unai Emery at Arsenal.
Read more: What a summer of upheaval means for Arsenal’s season
The title race and top four
Guardiola has already declared that his team won’t match last season’s record-breaking haul of 100 points but they will still start as the clear favourites for the title.
Theirs is a machine that has been built and honed over two years now. Players know the system and their roles within it. On top of that they have the winning feeling from last year.
City have added Riyad Mahrez as another attacking option and can now call on a fit-again Benjamin Mendy, who adds balance to the team but has not yet had much chance to show why they paid £50m for him.
Riyad Mahrez is the solitary addition to Man City’s title-winning team (Source: Getty)
No club has retained the Premier League trophy since Manchester United in 2008-09, but I think City have a huge opportunity.
United were second last year but I believe Mourinho faces a massive challenge to repeat that finish this time.
As I wrote last week, they lack an identity and Mourinho seems to be having difficulty getting the best out of a squad which, on paper, is not too far off City’s.
United will be hoping for a big season from Marcus Rashford (Source: Getty)
The Old Trafford faithful want something to get excited about and last season there wasn’t much of that; the Theatre of Dreams has become more like the Theatre of Disappointments.
Having the supporters onside makes a big difference – they really can feel like a 12th man when you’re out on the pitch – but I just don’t see Mourinho turning this malaise around.
He is going to need more buy-in from the players and one man United will want a big season from is Marcus Rashford. It’s time for him to take his game to another level and supplement Romelu Lukaku’s goals.
Liverpool look like City’s closest challengers and I expect the league to be a two-way fight between them.
Since arriving at Anfield Jurgen Klopp has taken them to a Europa League final and then, in May, a Champions League final. They might not have won, but Klopp has shown that he and his team are ready.
He has that positivity that makes players want to play for him and he appears to have solved Liverpool’s long-standing goalkeeper issue by taking Brazil No1 Alisson from Roma for £67m.
Naby Keita’s arrival has strengthened Liverpool’s hand (Source: Getty)
Crucially, the German has spiced up his squad with the £53m signing of Naby Keita. It’s important to refresh your team and the Guinea midfielder will provide that little bit of mystery.
They got the better of City in the Champions League last season and I think it could be so close domestically this term that it comes down to the head-to-head meetings, although I still fancy Pep’s side.
The team whose fortunes I’m really interested to see unfold are Arsenal, who have a new head coach in Unai Emery and have overhauled their whole management structure.
Emery wasn’t able to deliver the European success that Paris Saint-Germain wanted in his last job but that may be partly because the style of French football isn’t conducive to conquering Europe.
Unai Emery has taken charge as part of an overhaul at Arsenal (Source: Getty)
From what I’ve seen of him, he’s very positive and – while it might go either way – I really think they could be a great success story and have a good chance of returning to the top four.
I’ve never seen Mesut Ozil looking so happy at Arsenal as he has in pre-season, and that can only be a great thing for their prospects.
It looks as though Emery will use strikers Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang together and that is a partnership with a lot of potential.
Also fighting for those Champions League places will be Tottenham, who I’m increasingly viewing as a team who grind their way to results.
Mauricio Pochettino’s Tottenham team risks stagnating (Source: Getty)
Their lack of activity in the transfer window means it feels as though they have stagnated, while they need Dele Alli to become the more prolific goalscorer that he has been.
Then there is Chelsea. They were onto something with Antonio Conte but the relationship broke down and now they have replaced him with Sarri, who made his name at Napoli.
My concern with Sarri is that he has never won a trophy. He is 59 and has been managing since the 1990s, yet Napoli was his first big job and he only joined them three years ago.
So far the Italian has looked lost at Chelsea. He might prove me wrong but I haven’t seen anything to change my mind yet.
Maurizio Sarri has hit the managerial big-time late in his career (Source: Getty)
In Sunday’s Community Shield defeat to City, they were well beaten and even looked short of fitness for what you’d expect at this point. There’s no excuse for that.
By contrast, half of City’s team played at the World Cup but they had an eagerness and a readiness that Chelsea really lacked.
Midfielder Jorginho, who followed Sarri from Napoli, didn’t have the best game. He has a vital role to play in the new system, so if his move doesn’t work out then I don’t think his manager’s will either.
Top six challengers
Beyond the established Big Six it is shaping up to be a scrap and I don’t see anyone with enough strength to disrupt City, United, Liverpool, Arsenal, Spurs and Chelsea.
I quite like Everton’s signings, which include forward Richarlison and full-back Lucas Digne, but – England No1 Jordan Pickford aside – there isn’t much else to build on.
They don’t look like having the ammunition to sustain a Premier League season, although I still expect them to finish seventh.
West Ham are an intriguing side this season, because they could be anything.
New manager Manuel Pellegrini has won the title with City so knows what it takes to succeed in this competition and the signings they have made – Felipe Anderson, Andriy Yarmolenko, Jack Wilshere – are interesting.
Jack Wilshere is among the new faces at West Ham this season (Source: Getty)
If Wilshere can stay fit I think he could have a big impact this year and I can see the Hammers prodding at the top six.
Relegation
While I think the other two London clubs, Fulham and Crystal Palace, will be involved in the relegation fight to some extent I don’t see them being right in the thick of it.
In Slavisa Jokanovic, Fulham have somehow found a great manager who has produced winning teams without getting much credit for it. I think they’ll have enough to survive their first season back in the top flight.
Similarly at Palace, although I’ve not always been the biggest fan of Roy Hodgson he did an exceptional job to keep them up last year and he can do it again.
The Selhurst Park crowd is fantastic, vocal and really gets behind the team and that can be worth a point or two over a campaign.
The three teams I fear for are Huddersfield, Brighton and Cardiff. The first two stayed up last time but it can be hard to sustain that energy and momentum. If they hit a losing streak they could find it hard to stop.
Huddersfield face a battle to stay in the top flight again this season (Source: Getty)
You don’t expect to see Huddersfield in the Premier League so they were something of a novelty last year. Now that novelty has worn off and teams are familiar with them I think they will struggle and some of the top teams could really bury them.
Brighton are another good story and Chris Hughton is doing a great job, but the type of players they have signed tells you they are preparing for a relegation fight.
Forget games against the top six, they are thinking primarily about fixtures against the bottom six. That will decide whether they stay up and they will try to grind it out.
Cardiff and Neil Warnock, meanwhile, just shouldn’t be here. One look at their signings – players from Norwich, QPR, Bristol City and QPR – tells you all you need to know.
Here they are, though, and one thing in their favour is that they shouldn’t get too down after a defeat as it will be expected. The quality, however, ultimately isn’t there.
Trevor’s predictions
Top four: Man City, Liverpool, Arsenal, Man Utd
Relegated: Huddersfield, Brighton, Cardiff