The NHS will continue to swallow money as fast as politicians can work their shovels…regardless of Brexit

David Cameron said that his priority for government could be explained “in three letters: NHS.” That was in 2006. Four years later, his 2010 election campaign was built around a claim that he would “cut the deficit, not the NHS.”

Today, Theresa May will formally announce an additional £20bn in NHS funding in a speech that will also contain the obligatory declarations of affection for our unique system of healthcare delivery.

Nobody doubts the PM’s sincerity, but after more than a decade of concerted effort the chances remain remote that the NHS will ever cease to be a Labour-owned issue in voters’ minds.

Brexit, however, is very much a Tory issue and since each passing day seems to bring yet more concessions to the EU and Remainers in parliament, finding a way to make good on the Vote Leave promise of more money for the NHS has been a political priority.

May’s claim that her £20bn cash injection is courtesy of a Brexit dividend does not stand up to scrutiny, but the fact that Number 10 is using the phrase amounts to a victory for Boris Johnson and Michael Gove, two prominent passengers of the big red campaign bus that promised £350m a week for the NHS. But even they must know the claim of a Brexit dividend is complete fantasy. Once the £40bn divorce bill, new money for farm subsidies and ongoing payment to various EU projects is all taken into account, the government is in no position to claim that it’s suddenly flush.

There will, inevitably, come a time when the EU ceases to suck as much money from us as it once did, but unfortunately for ministers the pressures on health and social care will, by that point, be even greater than they are now.

In other words, despite what the PM claims, extra money for the NHS will be delivered by the time-honoured combination of tax rises and borrowing. To claim otherwise is an utter falsehood and, in the words of one Tory MP, treats the public as fools.

Ignore the politics and the presentation and get used to a few simple facts: taxes will rise, borrowing will increase, and the NHS will continue to demand more cash while swallowing it as fast as politicians can work their shovels.