Electric vehicle growth to cause oil demand to peak by the late 2030s, BP says in 2018 energy outlook
Global oil demand will peak in the late 2030s as electric vehicle use revolutionises the transport sector, BP predicted in its latest energy outlook.
The oil major expects more than 300m electric cars to be on the road by 2040, about 15 per cent of the total 2bn, and it has forecast 30 per cent of all miles driven by passenger cars to be powered by electricity two decades’ time.
However, as alternative fuels gain traction in the transport sector, the rising global demand for car travel will buoy oil demand.
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“The suggestion that rapid growth in electric cars will cause oil demand to collapse just isn’t supported by the basic numbers – even with really rapid growth,” said BP’s chief economist Spencer Dale.
Even in a scenario where internal combustion engines are banned and efficiency standards are very high, Dale said oil demand would still be higher in 2040 than it is today, after peaking in the 2030s.
Dale added that increasing environmental pressures on single-use plastics could dampen growth in petrochemicals “quite materially”, reducing oil consumption by a further 2m barrels per day by 2040.
“BP’s strategy has to be resilient and adaptable to significant changes in the energy industry. This Outlook considers the possible implications of some of these changes and helps inform our long-term planning. We cannot predict where these changes will take us, but we can use this knowledge to get fit and ready to play our role in meeting the energy needs of tomorrow,” said chief executive Bob Dudley.
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