Following their historic win in the Copeland by-election, should the Tories call an early General Election?
Chris Rumfitt, founder and chief executive of Field Consulting, says Yes.
A wafer-thin majority in Parliament. No mandate for her policy agenda. An obstructive House of Lords. A shambolic opposition. And a massive lead in the polls. The case for an early General Election was already strong, but the result in Copeland should make it a no-brainer.
Theresa May would take her majority from a handful to a hundred or more, give herself a clear five years to deliver Brexit and the rest of her policy agenda, and silence her critics in the party. Moreover, it is nine years since the last recession started and any look at our economic history tells you we tend to get one every decade.
If the Labour Party got a new leader and the economy slumped, the political landscape could change radically and quickly. Gordon Brown went from looking dominant in Autumn 2007 to being political toast just a year later. If the Prime Minister doesn’t want the same fate, she should go to the country. If not now, then when?
Andrew Hawkins, chairman of ComRes, says No.
The Tories might crave a larger Commons majority but must hold their nerve: barring disasters, they are heading for victory in 2020.
Defectors to Ukip who hated David Cameron are returning to the fold, the SNP will continue to keep Labour out of Scotland, and the Lib Dems are stealing votes away from Labour’s right flank. If ever there was a time not to call a General Election, it is now.
With the court challenges and Parliamentary shenanigans behind us, Article 50 will soon be triggered and negotiations begin in earnest. Business confidence is better than even Leave campaigners had dared hope. All the Tories need to do is sit back and watch as Labour’s electoral zeal drains away along with their self-belief.
The risk of calling an election, with the disruption it would bring, far outweighs the likely benefits of a few dozen more MPs. After all, with Labour in such a mess, they can govern perfectly well with the majority they already have.