Online polls got the London Mayoral race right – don’t ignore them for Brexit
Books, articles and countless university theses will be written about the 2016 campaign for London Mayor, duly won by Sadiq Khan last week.
Much will be said about the various candidates, campaigns and tactics, but it’s also worth noting that a number of pollsters got the result not just right, but bang on.
After pollsters of all kinds failed to forecast the general election result last may – eagle-eyed readers will note that the now famous exit poll was badly incorrect as well – this serves as a welcome return to form for the polling industry.
What’s more, two online-only pollsters – Opinium and YouGov – were spot on in calling the London Mayoral race 57-43 to Khan. That should greatly worry those who have dismissed online polling when it comes to the EU referendum.
Read more: New EU referendum poll finds growing business support for Brexit
The state of play according to the polls for the all-important vote on 23 June is curious indeed.
There have been 21 phone polls conducted in 2016 and just a single one has returned a vote for Brexit. Excluding respondents who said they didn’t know how they were going to vote, or were unsure, Remain holds a near 10 per cent average lead.
Yet, across the 55 online polls conducted this year it is Brexit that holds the average lead, albeit a slim one. In fact, seven of the past 10 reported online polls returned a vote that would see the UK leave the EU.
Many commentators – and punters – believe that online polls aren’t as accurate as phone polls. The thinking is usually that it’s easy to just click on a controversial response, rather than telling it to a human on the phone.
However, online pollsters can now point firmly in the direction of the London Mayoral election as evidence that they can be just as accurate as their phone-only cousins – in some cases more so.
The fixed odds betting markets would have you believe Remain is near certain to be the result after votes are counted on 23 June, which leads many to think that phone pollsters are still being dismissed.
Put simply, if you looked solely at online pollsters’ results that show seven of the past 10 polls for Brexit, would a vote to leave the EU be 2/1 or longer? Absolutely not.
Read more: Poll indicates Remain has the lead with 50 days to go until the vote
This discrepancy between opinion polls, commentators and betting markets is what many punters thrive on, and our political trading team at Sporting Index has seen a significant shift towards clients betting on Brexit in recent weeks.
Our markets still show Remain comfortably holding off Brexit 54-46, but few would be surprised to see that gap narrow, as we get ever closer to 23 June.
Turnout will be critical for both sides on the day, but perhaps more so for those backing ‘In’. If you are someone who dislikes the EU with a passion, you probably aren’t going to forget to vote.
In an odd twist of fate, Prime Minister David Cameron’s political future likely rests with Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s ability to get his party’s backers to their polling places and voting to remain.
Yet, Corbyn has been critical of the EU in the past, and he hasn’t struck many as being the most passionate person on the campaign trail.
Cameron certainly didn’t envision the Labour party would have a dyed-in-the-wool anti-EU leader at its helm when he called for a referendum.
We currently have turnout at 62 per cent, which would be slightly down on last May’s General Election.
With the local elections now out of the way, and the referendum campaigns in full swing, that number may inch upwards as voters grasp the importance of the vote.
It is, of course, too early to say which polling method will be proved on the morning of 24 June – if any – but following the London Mayoral result, we dismiss online polls at our peril.
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