Oldham West and Royton by-election 2015: What does history tell us will happen?
One thing’s for sure in the up-coming Oldham West & Royton by-election: neither Labour nor Ukip are taking electoral victory for granted in what is going to be a bitterly fought contest.
In leader Jeremy Corbyn’s first electoral challenge since taking the reins of the Labour party, his party won’t take any chances: it’s up against a party that has either won or come in second place in the last seven by-elections in England.
To look at how Thursday’s by-election is likely to play out, we’ve analysed the by-elections that took place over the course of the last Parliament.
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Ukip’s candidate, John Bickley, is not inexperienced: he has come in second place to Labour in two by-elections in the last two years, most recently losing by just 617 votes to Labour’s Liz McInnes in Heywood and Middleton – a constituency not far from Oldham West & Royton.
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While during the last Parliament seats changed party hands four times in by-elections, demographically, Oldham West & Royton has the makings of a Ukip target seat, and one which Nigel Farage’s party will be keen to win.
Indeed, in two of those four cases the results were Ukip victories, where the same candidates – Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless – remained as MPs, just for a different party, after they both defected from the Conservatives.
Still, with Ukip coming in second to Labour six times, both parties are set to fight tooth and nail for every vote.