21 Premier League players to watch in 2021 based on quantitative analysis
Who are the Premier League players to watch in 2021? Using quantitative analysis derived from investment banking, Matthew Belford and Jack Morris of Carteret Analytics have drawn up a shortlist for City A.M. that includes one player from each club plus the single most outstanding prospect.
Arsenal: Gabriel Magalhaes (Carteret Rating: 239.5)
Brazilian centre-back Gabriel, a summer signing from Lille, has quickly cemented his position in Arsenal’s starting XI by being their strongest performer this season.
Aston Villa: Ezri Konsa (Carteret Rating: 214.9)
While the majority of the Aston Villa squad is living in the shadow of Jack Grealish’s exceptional first half of the 2020-21 season, defender Ezri Konsa has emerged as a young talent who is continuing to grow — his rating is up 23 per cent on last season.
Brighton: Yves Bissouma (Carteret Rating: 203.3)
Another improving player whose rating is up by 40 per cent on 2019-20, Yves Bissouma is Brighton’s most improved player this season and could be the key to maintaining their Premier League status.
Burnley: Josh Brownhill (Carteret Rating: 188.2)
Josh Brownhill’s objective performance levels are 13 per cent higher this season, placing him on a level comparable to experienced Burnley midfielder Ashley Westwood (Carteret Rating 195.6). Data analysis suggests that Brownhill will be a key player for the Clarets in 2021.
Chelsea: Kurt Zouma (Carteret Rating: 267.6)
Kurt Zouma is Chelsea’s second highest rated centre-back this season, second only to veteran team-mate Thiago Silva. They have objectively formed the strongest defensive partnership in the Premier League, with Chelsea having conceded five goals fewer compared to the same stage last year. Zouma’s performance levels are up 17 per cent on 2019-20.
Crystal Palace: Eberechi Eze (Carteret Rating: 182.7)
Eberechi Eze’s increasing level of influence on the Crystal Palace team is demonstrated by the below chart, which shows his positive CMI (Carteret Match Impact) percentage correlation over recent matches. The trend suggest that he is starting to settle into the team following his transfer from QPR and is now showcasing glimpses of his full potential.
Everton: Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Carteret Rating: 276.6)
Dominic Calvert-Lewin is not only Everton’s current top performer but also the most improved player in this 21-man list (up 55 per cent on last season). He currently sits second in the leading goalscorer rankings, behind only Mohamed Salah.
Fulham: Tosin Adarabioyo (Carteret Rating: 208.8)
Objective data analysis shows that Tosin Adarabioyo is performing at a consistently high level this season. Fulham have only conceded four goals in the last four matches, only losing against Manchester City, and the numbers indicate that Adarabioyo has been the team’s most influential defender.
Leeds United: Illan Meslier (Carteret Rating 229.6)
Illan Meslier is currently the best performing goalkeeper in the Premeir League, by Carteret Rating, which is particularly impressive considering he is only 20 years old. Meslier’s score of over 10 per cent for match impact (CMI) in seven of 13 Premier League fixtures this season is a sign of how influential his performances have been.
Leicester City: Timothy Castagne (Carteret Rating: 213.1)
Prior to his injury, Timothy Castagne was the third best performer in the Leicester squad based on our analysis and his contribution to the team once he has made a full recovery could be vital in 2021.
Liverpool: Curtis Jones (Carteret Rating: 219.4)
At just 19 years old, Curtis Jones has been the strongest objective performer out of all Liverpool midfielders this season, bar makeshift centre-back Fabinho. We believe Jones will continue on a positive trajectory in 2021.
Manchester City: Ruben Dias (Carteret Rating: 243.5)
Despite some frustrating results, Manchester City are still performing strongly across the squad from an objective basis. Most impressively, new signing Ruben Dias’s rating is the best of City’s central defenders and behind just three team-mates, Kevin De Bruyne, Ilkay Gundogan and Riyad Mahrez, so far this season.
Manchester United: Bruno Fernandes (Carteret Rating: 314.8)
Bruno Fernandes has created a considerable gap between himself and the rest of the Manchester United squad. His impressive performance levels are up 15 per cent on last year, while his match impact (CMI) suggests he could be one of the players of the season.
Newcastle United: Callum Wilson (Carteret Rating: 247.0)
The striker’s move to Newcastle has proved catalytic for his performance levels, which are 51 per cent higher than last season and the best at his new club. He is a player in his prime years who we believe will continue to perform well in 2021.
Sheffield United: Sander Berge (Carteret Rating: 180.5)
After an underwhelming start to the season, Sander Berge may be the only positive thing bottom-placed Sheffield United have to enjoy at present. The young midfielder is bucking the trend at the Blades by achieving his highest rating to date, 23 per cent higher than last seasons 147.0.
Southampton: Jannik Vestergaard (Carteret Rating: 241.9)
Jannik Verstergaard is Southampton’s highest rated defender this season and the third best player overall, behind only James Ward-Prowse and Danny Ings. Vestergaard’s objective performance levels have improved by almost 30 per cent while the Saints have gone from 19th the same stage last season to the upper reaches of the table.
Tottenham: Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (Carteret Rating: 208.9)
Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg’s exceptional displays have understandably been a major talking point for supporters over recent weeks. His 11 per cent increase in rating makes him the best performing Tottenham midfielder. The Manchester City game aside, Hojbjerg has consistently performed above the average performance levels of the Spurs, as the graphic below illustrates.
West Ham United: Jarrod Bowen (Carteret Rating: 203.2)
At this point last season, West Ham were 17th in the Premier League with just 13 points. Their improvement is partly down the contribution of young attacker Jarrod Bowen, whose 21 per cent increase in rating marks him out as one of the club’s best players this season.
West Bromwich Albion: Conor Gallagher (Carteret Rating 220.4)
Chelsea loanee Conor Gallagher is objectively the best performing player in the West Brom team. He scores highly in our analysis for the Game Changer attribute which, when compared to all other Premier League midfielders, places him in the top 30 per cent this season.
Wolverhampton Wanderers: Pedro Neto (Carteret Rating: 222.0)
Pedro Neto is the highest rated player in the Wolves squad, with performance levels up 45 per cent compared to last season. Neto has a pass success percentage of 90 per cent this term, and his match impact (CMI) score indicates he is having a significant influence on each game he has played this season, consistently above the team’s average for centre-forwards and attacking midfielders.
Star Player for 2021: James Ward-Prowse (Carteret Rating: 279.5)
James Ward-Prowse has four goals and three assists this season, while his objective performance levels are comparable with Manchester City’s Kevin De Bruyne (Carteret Rating 280.8). Despite already achieving a positive uplift of 31 per cent so far for this season, Ward-Prowse is firmly plotted on a positive trajectory moving into the new year and we strongly believe that his rating will continue to climb. At present, he is the most likely candidate to achieve player of 2021 from an objective measurement.
Matthew Belford is a director and Jack Morris a corporate analyst at the Carteret Group. For more information on Carteret Analytics, its research and methodology, see here.