Manchester City v Liverpool: Is Pep Guardiola’s domestic dominance hurting his Champions League chances?
Manchester City must do something only two teams have done before them if they are to progress in the Champions League this week – and halt a run of heartaches suffered by Pep Guardiola’s domestically dominant teams in Europe.
While they may have one hand on the Premier League title, despite a weekend derby defeat by Manchester United delaying the celebrations, City are on the brink of exiting Europe after being hammered 3-0 at Liverpool in the first leg of their quarter-final.
Barcelona’s remarkable 6-1 victory over Paris Saint-Germain to overturn a 4-0 deficit in last season’s competition marked only the second time in Champions League history that any team had progressed after losing by three goals in the first leg. Deportivo La Coruna are the only other side to have pulled it off, having overturned a 4-1 first-leg loss at AC Milan with a 4-0 home win a fortnight later in 2004.
Few teams have a manager with as much Champions League pedigree to turn to as City have in Guardiola, yet unless the Premier League champions-elect can join Barcelona and Deportivo’s exclusive club they will add to a worrying trend of the Catalan coach’s sides coming unstuck in Europe in the latter stages of the competition.
Read more: How Pep’s Man City side compare against Fergie’s Manchester United Fledglings, Wenger’s Arsenal Invincibles, Mourinho’s Chelsea machine
City’s billionaire bankrollers could hardly dream of a better manager to lead them to European glory than Guardiola, who won the competition in his first season as Barcelona manager by outclassing City’s local rivals United in the final, and then repeating the trick against the same opposition two years later.
Yet since that 2011 triumph Guardiola’s teams have not progressed past the semi-finals in five attempts. It has been a case of no Lionel Messi, no Champions League title.
Just as his City side have done this season, Guardiola’s Bayern Munich teams blitzed the Bundesliga. Yet in two successive Champions League semi-finals they were crushed, first by Real Madrid in 2014 and then by Barcelona in 2015. In Guardiola’s third and final season in charge, they were narrowly knocked out by Atletico Madrid at the same stage.
The results seemed inversely related to how Bayern performed in the league. The 2015-16 season, when they were unlucky to be knocked out by Atletico, was Bayern’s closest-fought Bundesliga campaign and the title was only secured in May — the longest it took for Guardiola to do so in Germany.
Guardiola’s most humiliating European night at Bayern, on the other hand, fell in his most dominant season domestically. More than a month after Bayern had been crowned champions for 2013-14 — winning the league in record time — Real Madrid rocked up at the Allianz Arena and handed out a 4-0 beating.
Having tied up the league in March, both of Bayern’s only two losses that season came in April in the weeks leading up to their Champions League semi-final.
Similarly, a 5-3 aggregate loss to Barcelona one year later came weeks after the league title had been officially sewn up. Having won the Bundesliga the Bavarians lost three league games on the trot — more than in the rest of the whole campaign — in their fixtures sandwiched by the semi-final.
“It is more difficult to switch it on,” was Bayern legend Lothar Matthaus’s assessment of their apparent tailing off. “The motivation was missing. They can compete in Leverkusen with 70 or 80 per cent effort and probably win anyway. And if they do not, they remain unchallenged at the top.”
Despite Saturday’s hiccup against United, City have cruised to the Premier League title this season. Perhaps they should be hoping for a harder fight next year if they want to do the same in Europe too.